BETTING: Wk34 Tips for weekend 25-27 Mar

International weekend and as usual, anyone who is a clear favourite is down in the stupidly low price region of <1.08.  The only way to get much value on weekends like this is to put together a 'dead cert' accumulator to try and get a worthwhile return on your money, which is what I've attempted to do below.

INTERNATIONALS

Accumulator @ 1.75 (2 pts)

• France win at Luxembourg
• Spain beat Czech Republic
• Slovakia win at Andorra
• Germany beat Kazakhstan
• Greece win at Malta

ENGLAND

Cheltenham v Gillingham draw @ 3.55 (2 pts)

Cheltenham can do anything - good or bad - on their day so this bet is mainly based around Gillingham.  They have drawn their last 7 consecutive away games to complete an incredible run of 8 draws in their last 11.  They are unbeaten in 12 and the only times they have lost in 2011 have been against runaway leaders Chesterfield and promotion-chasing Wycombe.  I don't see a home win here, but even at 2.30 to win, Gillingham have drawn too many to make it good value.

Torquay win at Northampton - draw no bet @ 2.04 (2 pts)

Northampton haven't won in 11 games now, drawing 7 of them.

Torquay have a top-6 away record and have won 3 of their last 4.  They have also bought in Antonio Murray on loan from Ipswich, who scored his first goal last time out in the win over Cheltenham and is a very promising young striker.  Particularly at this level.

Other bets tweeted this week from @MightyTractor

Brighton beat Notts County @ 1.60 (2 pts)

BETTING: Wk33 Tips for weekend 18-20 Mar

ENGLAND
Man Utd win/win v Bolton @ 2.26 (2 pts)
United have won all bar one of their home games this season (13/14). United have also only failed to be winning at home going into the break on a single occasion (v Liverpool).  Of their 14 home games, United have matched the win/win on 12 occasions.
Bolton have lost half their away games and have gone on to lose every single time they've gone in behind at HT.  They seem to struggle to make much of an impression at the big sides and have lost to Arsenal, City, Spurs, Chelsea and Liverpool already.

Brighton win at Oldham @ 2.24 (2 pts)
Oldham have lost 4 on the bounce and haven't won in 9.  During that run they've only scored 3 goals.
Brighton have one of the best away records in League One and have now won 7 of their last 9, notching up 20 goals to 7 in that run.  In direct contract to Oldham, Brighton have won their last 4 straight.

Bradford beat Northampton @ 2.38 (2 pts)
Since news of Peter Taylor's departure, Bradford have turned their form around, winning 3 from their last 4 and posessing a middle-of-the-table home record for a team who a couple of weeks ago looked set for a serious battle to stay in the league.
Northampton have had an awful couple of months.  Since stuffing Crewe on 1st Feb, they drew 6 consecutive games, then lost their next game, so Ian sampson was sacked.  However, since Gary Johnson took over, another 3 losses followed, taking their winless run to 10 games.

ITALY
Udinese clean sheet v Catania @ 2.18 (2 pts)
I always like to bash Catania's away record, and this week will be no different.  Still no win on the road this season, and only 7 goals scored in 13 (none in 3).
By contrast, Udinese have kept 6 consecutive clean sheets and are in amazing form, winning 8 from 10 (GD +22), and are unbeaten in 12.

BETTING: Wk 33 Tips for 15-18 Mar

ENGLAND

A trio of away wins...

League One
Huddersfield win at Brentford @ 2.84 (2 pts)
Orient win at Hartlepool @ 2.94 (2 pts)
Peterborough win at Wednesday @ 2.64 (2 pts)

BETTING: Wk 32 - Weekend tips 11-13 Mar 2011

ENGLAND
Leyton Orient beat Oldham @ 1.89 (2 pts)
Orient lost 2 of their first 3 home games of the season, but since then they have won 8 and drawn 4, scoring an average of 2 goals per game at Brisbane Road. They've won 5 of their last 6 and are unbeaten in 12.
Oldham are in a poor run of form, with no win in 8, no away win in 6 and only 2 goals in their last 7 games, 5 of which they lost.

Dagenham win at Swindon @ 3.80 (2 pts)
Swindon haven't won a game since Charlie Austin left for Burnley during the window. That's now 13 games, during which they've only picked up 4 points. Goals have dried up too, scoring only 6 times. They have lost 5 of their last 6, scoring only twice.
Despite also being in the relgation zone, Dagenham have won their last 2 games and have a very positive record against other League 1 strugglers. Swindon could also be layed here.

FRANCE
Sochaux v Lyon >2.5goals @ 2.20 (2 pts)
Average goals in a Sochaux home game: 2.76, average goals in a Lyon away game: 3.08.
Aside from Lyon, Sochaux have played the rest of the teams challenging for the title at home this year already. In 3 games from 4, there were 3+ goals.
When playing non-title-chasers away from home, Lyon have been involves in 3+ games on 6 occasions from 9.

ITALY
Inter win/win at Brescia @ 2.92 (2 pts)
Inter draw/win at Brescia @ 4.70 (2 pts)
Brescia are very much at the wrong end of the table, and the only wins they have mustered in their last 23 have come against fellow strugglers Bari, Parma and Sampdoria.
Inter are on a superb run, taking 33 points from their last 39. Even under Rafa Benitez they were never beaten by a team as lowly as Brescia. In their last 4 wins away from home, Inter have been drawing at HT. Alternative bet is to simply back Inter at about 1.70.

SPAIN
Real Madrid win/win v Hercules @ 1.53 (2 pts)
Real Madrid clean sheet v Hercules @ 1.78 (2 pts)
Real have conceded only 6 goals at home this season. As I have blogged previously, Hercules have scored only 3 away all season, and not at all since October (now 9 games), picking up just a single point.
Assuming, given the above, that Real will win (they've won 13/13 at home this season), there is very little value at 1.17. Far better value is the win/win, given that Hercules have been behind at half-time in each of their last 6 away games.

Zaragoza +1.5 v Valencia @ 1.25 (2 pts)
Zaragoza haven't lost a home game by more than 1 goal aside from the visits of elite sides Barcelona, Real Madrid and Villarreal (and the first game of the season against Malaga). Perhaps this makes this bet a little risky being as Valencia are also one the the 'elite', but Zaragoza have had some reasonable results recently and even Barca and Atletico struggled to beat them, while Bilbao lost.
Valencia haven't won an away game by more than a single goal all season and will hopefully be depressed and jaded following their Champions League exit midweek in Schalke.

Other bets tweeted:
Braga v Liverpool <3.5goals @ 1.23 (2 pts)
Kiev v Man City <2.5goals @ 1.70 (2 pts)

BETTING: Wk 32 - Midweek tips 8-9 Mar 2011

ENGLAND

Championship
QPR win at Millwall (draw no bet) @ 1.93 (5 pts)
Preston v Leeds draw @ 3.70 (2 pts)

League One
Plymouth beat Swindon @ 2.56 (5 pts)

League Two
Aldershot v Torquay draw @ 3.55 (2 pts)
Southend v Gillingham draw @ 3.55 (2 pts)

BETTING: Wk 31 - Weekend tips 5/6 Mar 2011

ENGLAND
Forest v Hull draw @ 3.65 (2 pts)
Forest are still unbeaten at home this season, but their recent form has stuttered, winning only 1 from their last 6, and having to score last-minute equalisers twice.
Hull were beaten last week for only the second time in their last 19 matches (both came at home to promotion-chasing sides Leicester and Cardiff). In fact, Hull haven't been beaten on the road since visiting Burnley in late-September - 12 trips.  This match was their last heavy beating of the season and since this game, Hull have scored in every away game bar one, so I back these sides to cancel each other out.  If I was feeling brave, I'd say a score draw is on the cards.

Portsmouth beat Sheff Utd @ 1.84 (2 pts)
Portsmouth are back and finally showing the form to match the quality players at their disposal.  They have won each of their last 5 games without conceding, 3 of which came at home and, interestingly, in each case the game was goalless at HT.
The Blades continue to impress at the audition for League 1 status, and are without a win anywhere for 13 matches total (8 away). Rarely is there a case where such an in-form team meets the opposite and if Portsmouth don't get a result, I might break something.

FRANCE
Lay Lille at Marseille @ 4.20 (2 pts)
This may seem a strage one, given Marseille are 3rd and Lille are top-of-the-league, but there is a reason that Marseille are quite close to being odds-on to win this one - and here it is.
Lille have won 4 away games this season and statistically have the 3rd-best away record in the league, but look a little closer and you'll find these wins came away to the teams in 14th, 15th, 19th and 20th.  When it comes to visiting half-decent teams, Lille don't seem to do the business.
The word coming out of France is that Marseille will be champions this season and have clicked into top-gear in recent weeks.  Unbeaten in 9, won their last 4 and unbeaten at home since the opening day of the season. Contrary to league positions, a Lille win here would be a surprise.

GERMANY
Lay Werder Bremen at Freiburg @ 2.90 (2 pts)
The only home defeat Freiburg have suffered since mid-September was against runaway leaders Dortmund.  From October onwards their home record is P9 W6 D2 L1.  Although their overall record recently has seen them only win as many games as they've lost in their last 8, they still show no sign of being beaten at home, not even being behind at HT since late-September.
Bremen continue to under-impress.  They've won only twice since late-October (no wins in 6) and a last-gasp equaliser at Mainz in early-February was the only goal they've scored in their last 7 away matches.  Bremen's only away win this season came at table-proppers Borossia MG, so to lay them at these odds away to a team with the 5th best home record in the Bundesliga is very good value.

SPAIN
Lay Almeria at Hercules - draw no bet @ 2.96 (2 pts)
If a gander at Hercules' results this season makes you wonder if I've lost mind, look a little closer. Yes yes, I know they've failed to score in 7 of their last 8 games, losing 6, but the fact is that the only teams to win there this season are Bilbao, Barcelona, Valencia and Real Madrid.  These sides are 4 of the top-6.  The pattern emerges further when I tell you that every other visiting team (6) have been beaten, with the exception of Getafe who got a 0-0 in Hercules' last home game.
Almeria are bottom-of-the-table and have lost their last 5 away games.  I could see them scoring, maybe drawing, but probably not winning.

Other tweeted bets
Celtic beat Rangers in 90 mins @ 2.02 (2 pts)

Poker Results - Feb 2011

Despite not playing much this month, I had a decent month at the tables:
Buy-ins: +5.4 over 3,596 hands.
Win-rate: +8.06 PTBB/100.

Below is my graph for the month with winnings (in PTBB) on y, and number of hands played on x.

BETTING: Wk 31 - Midweek tips 1/2 Mar 2011

ENGLAND
Lay Colchester at Bristol Rovers @ 2.50 (2 pts)
Although generally speaking Rovers are on a shocking run (3 points from possible 24), they do show signs of life at home, with a recent win against Oldham and a decent scoring record of late for a team in such a poor league position.
Colchester haven't scored more than 1 in an away match in their last 7, with 5 blanks.  They also haven't won away since 30th October.

Aldershot v Gillingham draw @ 3.45 (2 pts)
Before losing at home to Port Vale last time out, Aldershot had drawn 5 in-a-row.
Gillingham have drawn 5 of their last 6 (3 away).

SPAIN
Sevilla v Gijon - Asian handicap Gijon +1.0 & +1.5 @ 1.80 (2 pts)
Sevilla have won only 3 home games by more than a single goal this season, and only 1 against a bottom-half team (Levante).
Despite Gijon's seemingly poor away record, they have in fact done very well (in asian handicap terms) against elite & top sides.  They only lost by a single goal away to Barca and Espanyol, and drew away to Valencia & Villarreal. Actually, in 10 games against the current top-7, they have only lost by 2+ on two occasions, including a 2-0 against Sevilla in the reverse fixture.

Villarreal v Hercules - either team scores 0 @ 2.04 (2 pts)
As I said the last time Hercules were away, the main reasoning here is that they have scored a pathetic 3 away goals all season and ironically, 2 of those came in their first game of the season away to Barcelona of all teams!  They haven't scored away in the league since late October, a run of 8 games during which they have shipped 16 goals and picked up just 1 point.