Wk 22 Tips

Boxing Day

WBA v City (BTTS = yes) [1.80]

United v Wigan (over 2.5 goals) [1.50]

Bolton v Newcastle (over 2.5 goals) [1.86]

Chelsea v Fulham (win/win) [1.96] for 1.75 pts

Chelsea v Fulham (draw/win) [4.60]

United v Wigan (win/win) [1.58] for 1.75 pts

United v Wigan (1.58) [5.20]



- Posted via iPhone

Wk 21 Tips

Tuesday 20th December 2011

Wednesday 21st December 2011

Thursday 22nd December 2011

Tottenham v Chelsea (Terry scores first) [0.5 pts @ 36.0]

Tottenham v Chelsea (Terry first + 2-1 Spurs) [0.25 pts @ 376.0]

Tottenham v Chelsea (Over 1.5 goals) [5 pts @ 1.32]

Wk 20 Tips

Midweek

Saturday 17th December

Sunday 18th December 2011

Wk 19 Tips

FYI, BTTS = 'Both Teams To Score' Yes/No

Monday 5th December 2011
Lazio v Novara (home win) [1.40]
Lazio v Novara (BTTS - no) [1.80]
Fulham v Liverpool (away win) [2.10]
Fulham v Liverpool (over 2.5 goals) [2.16]
Sevilla v Getafe (over 2.5 goals) [1.93]

Champions League 4-fold
Barca beat BATE Borisov
Man Utd win in Basle (DNB)
Chelsea beat Valencia (DNB)
Napoli win in Villarreal (DNB)
Total odds [2.47]

Weekend 10th & 11th December

Wk 18 Tips

FYI, BTTS = 'Both Teams To Score' Yes/No

Monday 28th November 2011
Lay Huddersfield at Charlton [3.10]

Tuesday 29th November 2011
Napoli v Juventus (BTTS = no) [2.10]

Friday 2nd December 2011
Caen v Marseille (under 2.5 goals) [1.67]
Leverkusen v Hoffenheim (BTTS - no) [2.10]
Genoa v Milan (BTTS - yes) [1.85]

Saturday 3rd December 2011
Newcastle v Chelsea (BTTS - yes) [1.80]
Blackburn v Swansea (over 2.5 goals) [1.91]
Man City v Norwich (over 2.5 goals) [1.36]
Man City v Norwich (BTTS - yes) [1.87]
Tottenham v Bolton (over 2.5 goals) [1.47]
Tottenham v Bolton (BTTS - yes) [1.75]
Arsenal win at Wigan [1.61]
Arsenal v Wigan (over 2.5 goals) [1.67]
Arsenal v Wigan (BTTS - yes) [1.73]
Man Utd win at Aston Villa [1.75]
Aston Villa v Man Utd (BTTS - yes) [1.83]
Inter v Udinese (BTTS - no) [1.95]
Napoli v Lecce (BTTS - no) [1.67]
Brighton beat Forest [2.30]

Sunday 4th December 2011
Atletico Madrid v Vallecano draw [4.20]
Catania beat Cagliari [2.00]
Catania v Cagliari (BTTS - no) [1.75]
Juventus beat Cesena [1.25]
Bologna v Siena (BTTS - no) [1.80]
Fiorentina v Roma (BTTS - no) [1.83]
Juventus v Cesena (BTTS - no) [1.57]
Hamburg v Nurnburg (BTTS - yes) [1.70]
Everton v Stoke (over 2.5 goals) [2.00]
PSG beat Auxerre [1.50]
Schalke v Augsburg (BTTS - yes) [2.00]
Mallorca v Bilbao draw [3.30]
Parma beat Palermo [2.05]
Parma v Palermo (BTTS - no) [1.90]
Lyon beat Toulouse [1.75]

Wk 17 Tips

So, I've been away for a while developing a new system.  It is taking shape nicely, but it's still early days.  Here's what it spat out for this Saturday...

SATURDAY 26th NOVEMBER 2011
Premiership (BTTS - Yes)
My ROI on this type of bet so far: +10.13%
Stoke v Blackburn, 12:45 [1.80]
Bolton v Everton, 15:00 [1.75]
Chelsea v Wolverhampton, 15:00 [2.00]
Man Utd v Newcastle, 15:00 [2.10]
Norwich v QPR, 15:00 [1.75]
West Brom v Tottenham, 15:00 [1.80]

League 1 (Draws)

My ROI on this type of bet so far: +12.29%

Carlisle v Colchester, 15:00 [3.60]

Exeter v Tranmere, 15:00 [3.40]

MK Dons v Wycombe, 15:00 [4.60]

Sheffield Wed v Leyton Orient, 15:00 [4.00]

League 1 (Away wins)

My ROI on this type of bet so far: +7.32%

Bournemouth v Oldham, 15:00 [3.30]

Rochdale v Brentford, 15:00 [2.70]
-----------------------------------------------------------
SUNDAY 27th NOVEMBER 2011

Premiership (Home wins)

My ROI on this type of bet so far: +7.35%

Swansea v Aston Villa, 13:30 [2.20]

Premiership (Away wins)

My ROI on this type of bet so far: +14.40%

Liverpool v Man City, 16:00 [2.88]

Premiership (BTTS - yes) - Both Teams To Score

My ROI on this type of bet so far: +13.75%

Liverpool v Man City, 16:00 [1.67]

Germany (BTTS - yes)

My ROI on this type of bet so far: +9.11%

Werder Bremen v VfB Stuttgart, 14:30 [1.62]

Italy (Home wins)

My ROI on this type of bet so far: +9.02%

Palermo v Fiorentina, 14:00 [2.30]

AC Milan v Chievo, 19:45 [1.36]

Spain (Draws)

My ROI on this type of bet so far: +19.92%

Real Betis v Real Sociedad, 11:00 [3.55]

Espanyol v Osasuna, 17:00 [3.45]

Real Zaragoza v Sevilla, 20:30 [3.35]

Wk 9 Betting Tips

Tuesday 27th September 2011
Champions League double [1.46] 2 pts
* Man Utd
* Real Madrid
Lay Bayern Munich v Man City [1.85] 2 pts
Bayern Munich v Man City (< 2.5 goals) [2.20] 2 pts

Wednesday 28th September 2011
Arsenal -1.0 v Olympiakos [1.95] 5 pts
Marseille beat Dortmund (DNB) [2.12] 2 pts
BATE Borisov +2.5 v Barcelona [1.81] 2 pts
Shakhtar Donetsk beat Apoel Nicosia [1.57] 2 pts

Thursday 29th September 2011
Tottenham win/win v Shamrock Rovers [1.58] 4.31 pts
Tottenham draw/win v Shamrock Rovers [5.50] 2 pts

Saturday 1st October 2011
ENG 17:20 - Lay Leicester v Derby [1.76]
GER 17:30 - Cologne win at Hertha Berlin (DNB) [2.88]
FRA 18:00 - Dijon v Ajaccio Lay < 2.5 goals [1.71] 2.11 pts
FRA 18:00 - Valenciennes win at Lorient [4.20] 0.87 pts
FRA 18:00 - Lorient v Valenciennes draw [3.25] 1.13 pts
FRA 20:00 - Montpellier win at Bordeaux (DNB) [2.50] 2 pts

Sunday 2nd October 2011
ITA 11:30 - Novara beat Catania [2.30] 2.19 pts
ITA 11:30 - Novara v Catania draw [3.30] 1.53 pts
FRA 20:00 - PSG v Lyon (BTTS) [1.80] 2 pts

Champions League Accumilators

As promised, my 2 accumilators placed before the 1st round of games.  Only just had time to put them up.


Groups A-D Treble

Grp C - Winner: Man Utd @ 1.20
Grp C - Qualify: Benfica @ 1.14
Grp D - Qualify: Lyon @ 1.44
TOTAL ODDS: 1.97
TOTAL STAKE: 5 pts

Groups E-H 4-fold

Grp E - Winner: Chelsea @ 1.53
Grp G - Winner: Porto @ 2.10
Grp G - Qualify: Shakhtar @ 1.67
Grp H - Winner: Barcelona @ 1.22
TOTAL ODDS: 6.54
TOTAL STAKE: 5 pts

Wk 8 betting tips

Monday 19th September 2011
ENG - 19:45 - Ipswich v Coventry > 2.5 goals [1.94] 2.5 pts

Tuesday 20th September 2011
RUGBY WC - 09:30 - Russia +29.5 v Italy [1.54] 2 pts

Wednesday 21st September 2011
FRA - 18:00 - Lyon win at Caen [2.12] 2 pts
FRA - 20:00 - Toulouse win at St Etienne (DNB) [2.25] 2 pts

Thursday 22nd September 2011
SPA - 19:00 - Espanyol beat Getafe (DNB) [1.59] 2 pts
ITA - 19:45 - Roma v Siena (either scores 0) [2.10] 2 pts

Saturday 24th September 2011
ENG - 15:00 - Blackburn win at Newcastle (DNB) [3.40] 2 pts
ENG - 15:00 - Bristol City v Hull < 2.5 goals [1.78] 2 pts
ENG - 15:00 - Lay Millwall at Derby [3.05] 2 pts
ENG - 15:00 - Sheff Utd win at Wycombe [2.14] 2 pts
ENG - 15:00 - Morecambe beat Bristol Rovers [2.20] 2 pts

Sunday 25th September 2011
SPA - 11:00 - Sociedad win at Mallorca (DNB) [2.50] 2 pts
ENG - 16:00 - QPR v Villa draw [3.35] 2 pts
FRA - 16:00 - Auxerre v Sochaux (BTTS) [1.92] 2 pts
SPA - 21:00 - Malaga win at Zaragoza (DNB) [1.67] 2 pts

Season so far (Weeks 1-7)

So far this season, the profit figures are as follows:

Total profit from tips: +9.44 pts
Total profit from tips (including trading): +13.00 pts

Wk 7 Betting Tips

TUESDAY 13th September 2011
ECL - 18:00 - Grp F - Lay Dortmund v Arsenal [1.89] 2 pts

WEDNESDAY 14th September 2011

ECL - 18:00 - Grp C - Man Utd win at Benfica [2.10] 1 pt

THURSDAY 15th September 2011

EEL - 18:00 - Grp A - PAOK beat Tottenham (DNB) [1.74] 5 pts

SATURDAY 17th September 2011

ENG - 15:00 - Oldham win at Leyton Orient (DNB) [2.50] 2 pts

ENG - 15:00 - Morecambe win at Dagenham (DNB) [2.20] 2 pts

FRA - 18:00 - Montpellier win at Brest (DNB) [2.00] 2 pts

FRA - 18:00 - Dijon win at Valenciennes [5.00] 1 pt

FRA - 18:00 - Valenciennes v Dijon draw [3.30] 1.51 pts

SPA - 21:00 - Lay Sevilla v Sociedad [1.58] 3 pts

SUNDAY 18th September 2011

FRA - 16:00 - PSG win at Evian [2.10] 2 pts

via Twitter @MightyTractor
RUGBY WC - Georgia +37.5 v England [1.34] 5 pts

Wk 6 football tips

BLOGGED TIPS
EURO 2012 QUALIFIERS
Tue 6th Sep - G - England win/win v Wales @ 1.50 (3.93 pts)
Tue 6th Sep - G - England draw/win v Wales @ 5.50 (1.07 pts)

EURO 2012 QUALIFIERS ACCUMILATOR
Tue 6th Sep - 19:45 - G - England beat Wales @ 1.14
Tue 6th Sep - 19:15 - D - Bosnia beat Belarus @ 1.67
Tue 6th Sep - 19:45 - C - Italy beat Slovenia @ 1.42
Tue 6th Sep - 21:00 - I - Spain win/win v Leichtenstein @ 1.14
TOTAL ODDS: 3.08
STAKE: 5 pts

SATURDAY 10th SEPTEMBER 2011
ENG - 15:00 - Southampton beat Forest @ 1.85
ENG - 15:00 - Plymouth v Port Vale > 2.5 goals @ 1.86
ENG - 15:00 - Lay Swindon v Southend @ 2.10
FRA - 18:00 - Bordeaux beat Evian @ 1.86
FRA - 20:00 - Rennes win at Marseille - DNB @ 4.20

SUNDAY 11th SEPTEMBER 2011
SPA - 17:00 - Vallecano beat Zaragoza @ 2.20
FRA - 20:00 - PSG v Brest - both teams score @ 2.20

TWITTER via @MightyTractor
RUGBY WORLD CUP
Fri 9th Sep - 09:30 - Tonga +61.5 v New Zealand @ 1.74 (4 pts)

Wk 5 Football Tips

Twitter via @MightyTractor

SPAIN
MON 29th Aug - 20:00 - Barcelona clean sheet v Villarreal @ 1.90 (2 pts)

EURO 2012 QUALIFIERS
Fri 2nd Sep - 19:15 - G - England win at Bulgaria (DNB) @ 1.22 (10 pts)

EURO 2012 QUALIFIERS ACCUMILATOR
Fri 2nd Sep - 17:00 - A - Belgium win at Azerbaijan @ 1.40
Fri 2nd Sep - 17:00 - B - Armenia win at Andorra @ 1.20
Fri 2nd Sep - 18:00 - F - Croatia win at Malta @ 1.12
Fri 2nd Sep - 18:00 - F - Georgia beta Latvia (DNB) @ 1.20
Fri 2nd Sep - 18:00 - A - Turkey beat Kazakhstan @ 1.06
Fri 2nd Sep - 18:30 - D - Romania win at Luxembourg @ 1.18
Fri 2nd Sep - 19:30 - E - Holland/Holland v San Marino @ 1.06
Fri 2nd Sep - 19:45 - C - Italy win at Faeroe Islands @ 1.04

TOTAL ODDS: 3.11
STAKE: 5 pts

Wk 4 Football Tips

OTHER TIPS
MON 22nd Aug - 20:00 - Man Utd beat Tottenham @ 1.61 (8 pts)
MON 22nd Aug - 20:00 - Man Utd lose/win v Tottenham @ 27.0 (2 pts)

ENGLAND
SAT 27th Aug - 15:00 - Chelsea win/win v Norwich @ 1.68 (3 pts)
SAT 27th Aug - 15:00 - Chelsea draw/win v Norwich @ 5.0 (1 pt)
SAT 27th Aug - 15:00 - Lay Huddersfield v Wycombe @ 1.67 (2 pts)

FRANCE
SAT 27th Aug - 18:00 - Lay Evian v Dijon @ 2.10 (2 pts)
SAT 27th Aug - 15:00 - Lay Lorient v Nancy @ 2.06 (2 pts)
SAT 27th Aug - 20:00 - Lay Lyon v Montpellier @ 1.62 (2 pts)

SPAIN
SAT 27th Aug - 19:00 - Lay Valencia v Santander @ 1.47 (2 pts)
SUN 28th Aug - 21:00 - Lay Sevilla v Malaga @ 2.30 (2 pts)

Wk 3 Football Tips

via Twitter @MightyTractor

SPAIN
Wed 17th Aug - 22:00 - Barcelona beat Real Madrid @ 2.02 (5 pts)

FRANCE
Sat 20th Aug - 18:00 - Dijon v Lorient > 2.5 goals @ 2.46 (2 pts)
Sat 20th Aug - 18:00 - Toulouse win at Nice <draw no bet> @ 1.88 (2 pts)

Premiership Season Predictions

Predicted Permiership Final Table
1. Manchester United
2. Chelsea
3. Manchester City
4. Liverpool
5. Arsenal
6. Tottenham Hotspur
7. Everton
8. Stoke City
9. West Bromwich Albion
10. Sunderland
11. Aston Villa
12. Fulham
13. Wolverhampton Wanderers
14. Norwich City
15. Newcastle United
16. Bolton Wanderers
17. Swansea City
18. Queens Park Rangers
19. Blackburn Rovers
20. Wigan Athletic

Tips
Wigan to get relegated @ 2.98 (10 pts)
Man Utd to win the title @ 2.68 (10 pts)
West Brom top-10 finish @ 4.00 (5 pts)
Stoke top-10 finish @ 2.80 (5 pts)

My aim will be to trade off most of these bets during December if profitable, since a change of manager or significant transfer activity in January can change things dramatically.

Wk 2 Football Tips

Hi, I'm back for the new season proper, fresh from a 50 pt profit since I started blogging football bets mid-way through last season.

I had an excellent off-season, with the highlight being one of my picks for The Open (Darren Clarke) storming home for me at 200/1.  Via my various picks at this tournament, I generated a 244 pt profit, which was nice!

I don't see any huge value in the opening weekend's Premiership fixtures, so I believe the best value out there is to be had on the tips below.
Best value of the weekend is undoubtedly Barnet and Rennes.  Both had great starts and are at home against sides who didn't exactly fly out of the blocks.

ENGLAND
SAT 15:00 - Southampton win at Barnsley @ 2.42 (2 pts)
SAT 15:00 - Leicester beat Reading @ 1.85 (2 pts)
SAT 15:00 - Bury beat Carlisle @ 2.34 (2 pts)
SAT 15:00 - Chesterfield v Stevenage > 2.5 goals @ 2.18 (2 pts)
SAT 15:00 - Barnet beat Port Vale @ 2.52 (2 pts)
SAT 15:00 - Burton v Shrewsbury > 2.5 goals @ 2.08 (2 pts)

FRANCE
SAT 18:00 - Rennes beat PSG (DNB) @ 1.96 (2 pts)
SUN 16:00 - Marseille win at Auxerre (DNB) @ 1.56 (2 pts)

GERMANY
SAT 14:30 - Dortmund win at Hoffenheim @ 1.77 (2 pts)

Wk 1 Various Tips

via Twitter @MightyTractor:

Ipwich win at Bristol City @ 3.05 (2 pts)

Wk 50 Various Tips

GOLF: The Open
TO MAKE THE CUT (all 2 pts)
McDowell @ 1.28
Garcia @ 1.25
Casey @ 1.50

TOP-20 FINISH (all 2 pts)
McIlroy @ 1.40
Westwood @ 1.57
McDowell @ 2.75
Kaymer @ 2.30
Clarke @ 8.00
Donald @ 1.50
Garcia @ 2.25
Casey @ 3.75

TO WIN (all 1 pt E/W)
Clarke @ 201.00
McIlroy @ 9.00
Westwood @ 13.00
Donald @ 13.00
McDowell @ 34.00
Garcia @ 31.00
Casey @ 76.00
Kaymer @ 26.00

Wk 48 Various Tips

Tips tweeted from @MightyTractor
Nadal beats Del Potro @ 1.24 (5 pts)
Bartoli beats Lisicki @ 2.06 (2 pts)
Sharapova beats Cibulkova @ 1.29 (5 pts)
Djokovic beats Nadal @ 2.42 (5 pts)

Wk 45 various tips

Bets tweeted from @MightyTractor
TUE - 19:30 - San Marino v Hungary > 2.5 goals @ 1.37 (5 pts)

Wk 44 various tips

Britain's Got Talent

SF2 - Lay 'Two & A Half Men' @ 5.6 (2 pts)

Britain's Got Talent Betting Strategy (Part II)

BGT: The Final

There are many interesting stats for the BGT final.  All stats are in reference to the previous 4 finals of BGT (6 acts in series 1, 10 acts in series 2-4), in which a total of 36 acts performed.  For ease of calculations, I will calculate the 6-act final of 2007 as if there had been 10 acts performing.

Interesting stats:

• Only twice from 18 previous semi-finals has an act that finished runner-up in the semi gone on to finish higher in the final that the act they lost out to in the semi. These acts were Diversity (beating Susan Boyle to win the final in series 3), and Twist & Pulse (beating Janey Cutler to finish runner-up in series 4).  That's only 11.1% of the time. Don't bet on acts that didn't win their SF. In Part I of my BGT strategy, I emphasised the importance of performing towards the end of the show. In both these cases, the SF runners-up who did better in the final were hampered in their respective SFs by a bad/early draw and lost out to an act that performed last, thus skewing the voting away from them.
• EVERY winner of BGT was one of the last 4 acts to perform in the final.  Paul Potts performed 6/6, George Sampson 7/10, Diversity 9/10 and Spelbound 10/10.
• Semi-final winners finised in the top 5 (or top-half) in the final on 15/18 occasions. That's 83.3% of the time.
• Only 3 SF runners-up have ever achieved a top-half position in the final.  Two were Diversity and Twist & Pulse (mentionned earlier) and the other was Damon Scott, a singer in series 1 who finished 3/6.
• Semi-final winners drawn favourably (in the second half of the final) have finished in the top 5 in the final on 12/13 occasions.  That's only 92.3% of the time.  The only exception was Janey Cutler last year.  Indeed, in series 2 (George Sampson - 2008), the 5 SF winners performed in the last 5 slots and promptly finished in positions 1-5.

Notes on the Janey Cutler/Twist & Pulse anomaly:
In the 4th live SF of series 4 (2010), Janey and T&P polled over 80% of the vote between them.  This was unusually high, as the two most popular acts in SFs normally get <75% when added together.  Janey won the vote by a mere 5%, despite performing last in the coveted 8th slot.  T&P were hampered by performing 4th, and to this day polled the highest % vote for an act performing in the first-half of a SF (even more than Paul Burling who won from the 4th slot, and more than Diversity the year before).  The combination of performing last and having the "loveable old granny" factor won Janey a lot of votes she would not otherwise have got, as was emphasised in the final when she performed 9/10 but only polled 3.6% of the vote.
It is my theory that these factors gave Janey a temporary likeability factor in which the British public voted her through the SF as it made a nice story, but when it got to the business-end of the competition, they acknowledged she wasn't in the same class.  It's the same reason Anne Widdecombe and John Sargeant did so well on Strictly Come Dancing; they are entertaining, it makes a nice story, and it's funny to vote for them.  Ultimately the public will do the right thing when it matters and wouldn't let an act so clearly out of their depth win the competition.

SF qualifiers from the current series:
Once again, nobody from the first-half of any show ended up winning.  Indeed, only 1/10 acts who qualified for the final performed in the first-half of their SF.
SF1 - WINNER: Ronan Parke (slot 8/8), RU: Paul Gbegbaje (slot 4/8).
SF2 - WINNER: New Bounce (slot 5/8), RU: Jean Martyn (slot 6/8).
SF3 - WINNER: Les Gibson (slot 6/8), RU: James Hobley (slot 7/8).
SF4 - WINNER: Jai McDowall (slot 6/8), RU: Steven Hall (slot 7/8).
SF5 - WINNER: Razy Gogonea (slot 8/8), RU: Michael Collings (slot 7/8).

Predictions:
It was a shock that Les Gibson beat James Hobley in SF3.  Having already seen Les beat him once, I can't see how James can improve on his act enough to beat Les in the final.  I'm trying to to be a philistine here, but what can he do with his dance routine that he hasn't already done?  Ronan Parke was so far ahead of Paul Gbegbaje and will surely be given a prime slot in the final in which to shine. We have to consider who will be chosen to fill the last 4 slots in the final, since nobody has ever won from outside these slots.  Ronan Parke is surely a shoe-in to close the show, or at least take one of these slots, whilst Paul and Jean will surely feature early.  I wasn't hugely impressed with New Bounce, but everyone else seems to think they are amazing so they are a potential threat given the right draw.
Much will depend on the order, but in terms of pure quality, surely it much be between Ronan and Razy.  Jai stands a good chance too if he is positioned late-on and sings the right song.  If the final runs true to form, the final 4 slots will probably be filled by Ronan, Razy, Jai and one of New Bounce/James/Michael.
Les is the unknown in all this as there have been so few impressionists get to this stage before.  I don't think he's as good as Paul Burling from the previous series, but a good routine can see him challenge if positioned late.  Pre-show, my money's on Ronan.

Britain's Got Talent Betting Strategy (Part I)

BGT: Semi Finals

When it comes to the live semi-finals of BGT, there is a massive, undeniable and fairly obvious trend: 

Bet on acts performing 6th, 7th or 8th.

 

It sounds simple, and it can be backed up with stats:

For the past 3 years of BGT (series 2-4), there have been 5 live semi-finals each year.  In series 1 there were 3 live semi-finals.  In all cases (18 semis in total), there have been 8 acts performing.

• In 15/19 SFs, the act performing 8th (last) has won the semi final outright.  That's 78.9% of the time.
• In 18/19 SFs, the winning act has been in the last 3 to perform (6th, 7th or 8th).  That's 94.7% of the time. The only exception was Paul Burling (the Impressionist) in 2010, who only won by 3% of the vote (a record low margin for an act outside the last 3 to perform).  You've guessed it; he beat an act that performed 7th out of 8.
• NEVER has an act performing in the first 3 slots won a SF.

Again, last night's first SF was won by Ronan Parke (performing 8th and last).

Why does such a pattern exist?  Because the order of the acts is not random.  

Typically the producers (who decide these things in advance) like to follow a formula which guarantees the greatest feel-good viewing experience for the public. 

Usually they will start with a fun high-tempo act such as a dance troupe or singing group with an upbeat track (rarely a solo performer).  They tend to end with 2 very strong acts that are considered to be favourites with the public and can close the show with the wow-factor which will get late-comers voting even if they've seen only the last act or two.  These acts tend to be something really special or highly dramatic/emotional, such as Paul Potts singing Nessun Dorma, Susan Boyle, or in the case of last night, Ronan Parke singing "Feel My Love" by Adele.  The producers also want the strongest possible line-up for the final - and putting the best acts on last maximises the chance of them getting through.

Even if the line-up for the next SF is available, the order is not normally decided until late-on, and kept secret to maintain interest.  There is opportunity to predict the line-up based on assumptions like I have made above and bet accordingly.  Once the performing order is revealed, odds will shift and trading opportunities arise.

Think before you bet though.  Whilst the pattern indicates the producers almost always end with quality acts, they could easily decide to finish with a feel-good (but less talented) 'Jedward' type act so beware.

Keep an eye out for these trends on the coming 4 SFs this week.

I'll be back later in the week with strategy for the BGT final. 

Wk 43 Football Tips

SUNDAY

ENG - 15:00 - Huddersfield v Peterborough (both teams score) @ 1.60 (2 pts)
ENG - 15:00 - Huddersfield v Peterborough (> 2.5 goals) @ 1.83 (2 pts)
FRA - 20:00 - Sochaux win at Arles @ 1.83 (2 pts)
FRA - 20:00 - Arles v Sochaux (either scores 0) @ 2.32 (2 pts)
FRA - 20:00 - Brest v Toulouse draw @ 3.20 (2 pts)

Other bets tweeted from @MightyTractor
SAT - ECL - 20:00 - Barcelona beat Man Utd @ 2.14 (2 pts)

Wk42 Football Tips

Blogged Tips:

THURSDAY
19:30 - GER - Borossia MG beat Bochum in Bundesliga Playoffs @ 1.73 (2 pts)
19:45 - ENG - Peterborough v MK Dons > 2.5 goals @ 1.64 (2 pts)

SUNDAY
16:00 - ENG - Wolves beat Blackburn @ 2.22 (2 pts)
16:00 - ENG - Man Utd win/win v Blackpool @ 2.54 (2 pts)
16:00 - ENG - Man Utd draw/win v Blackpool @ 5.40 (2 pts)
16:00 - SPA - Real Madrid win/win v Almeria @ 1.47 (2 pts)
16:00 - SPA - Real Madrid v Almeria > 1.5 1st-half goals @ 1.80 (2 pts)
17:00 - ITA - Parma win at Cagliari @ 3.95 (2 pts)

Others tweeted from @MightyTractor:
n/a

Wk 41 Football Tips

Blogged Tips

TUESDAY

19:45 - ENG - Man City beat Tottenham (draw no bet) @ 1.47 (5 pts)

WEDNESDAY

18:00 - FRA - Lens v Bordeaux draw @ 3.35 (2 pts)

18:00 - FRA - Sochaux beat Monaco (draw no bet) @ 1.63 (2 pts)

20:00 - SPA - Almeria v Villarreal (either scores 0) @ 2.22 (2 pts)

SATURDAY

14:30 - GER - Lay Hamburg v Borossia MG @ 2.82 (2 pts)

14:30 - GER - Mainz beat St Pauli @ 1.41 (2 pts)

SUNDAY

16:00 - ENG - Liverpool win/win v Tottenham @ 3.00 (2 pts)

16:00 - ENG - Liverpool draw/win v Tottenham @ 5.10 (2 pts)

20:00 - SPA - Bilbao v Malaga (both teams score) @ 1.65 (2 pts)

Other Tips tweeted @MightyTractor

n/a

Wk 40 Football Tips

Wk 40 Football Tips: 2nd - 8th May 2011

Blogged Tips

Saturday

15:00 - ENG - Burton v Accrington draw @ 3.65 (2 pts)

18:00 - FRA - Arles v St Etienne - either scores 0 @ 1.87 (2 pts)

18:00 - FRA - Auxerre beat Montpellier (draw no bet) @ 1.60 (2 pts)

Sunday

14:00 - ITA - Bologna v Parma (lay the draw) @ 1.45 (2 pts)

16:10 - ENG - Man Utd beat Chelsea (draw no bet) @ 1.71 (5 pts)

18:00 - SPA - Barcelona win/win v Espanyol @ 1.62 (2 pts)

18:00 - SPA - Barcelona draw/win v Espanyol @ 5.30 (2 pts)

Tweets from @MightyTractor

Wednesday

19:45 - ECL - Man Utd v Schalke < 2.5 goals @ 1.92 (2 pts)

Wk39 Football Tips

Blogged tips:

Saturday

15:00 - ENG - West Brom beat Villa - draw no bet @ 1.72 (2 pts)

15:00 - ENG - Southampton win at Brentford @ 1.74 (2 pts)

17:30 - ENG - Chelsea beat Tottenham @ 1.51 (2 pts)

18:00 - FRA - Lille v Arles - either scores 0 @ 1.60 (2 pts)

Sunday

14:00 - ITA - Milan win/win v Bologna @ 1.78 (2 pts)

20:00 - SPA - Valencia win at Osasuna - draw no bet @ 1.90 (2 pts)

12:00 - ENG - Liverpool win/win v Newcastle @ 2.34 (2 pts)

12:00 - ENG - Liverpool draw/win v Newcastle @ 5.0 (2 pts)

16:10 - ENG - Man City beat West Ham @ 1.43 (2 pts)

Tweeted from @MightyTractor or from Facebook:

Wednesday

19:45 - ECL - Real Madrid v Barcelona < 2.5 goals @ 1.80 (2 pts)

Friday

19:30 - GER - Bremen beat Wolfsburg - draw no bet @ 1.62 (2 pts)

BETTING: Wk 38 Football Tips

Blogged Tips

SATURDAY

14:00 - ITA - Bari v Sampdoria < 2.5 goals @ 1.80 (2 pts)

15:00 - ENG - Aldershot beat Burton @ 1.96 (2 pts)

20:00 - ITA - Juventus beat Catania @ 1.48 (2 pts)

19:00 - SPA - Barcelona win/win v Osasuna @ 1.65 (2pts)

SUNDAY

16:00 - FRA - Nancy v Arles - either scores 0 @ 1.73 (2 pts)

16:00 - SPA - Hercules v Deportivo - either scores 0 @ 1.86 (2 pts)

Tweeted or Facebooked Tips

TUESDAY

Man Utd win at Newcastle @ 1.71 (2 pts)

WEDNESDAY

Spurs v Arsenal draw @ 3.60 (2 pts)

FRIDAY

Exeter beat Oldham (draw no bet) @ 1.51 (4 pts)

BETTING: Wk 37 football tips

SATURDAY 16Apr11
14:30 - GER - Cologne beat Stuttgart - draw no bet @ 1.83 (2 pts)
15:00 - ENG - Hull v Doncaster - either team scores 0 @ 2.0 (2 pts)
15:00 - ENG - Accrington beat Oxford @ 1.97 (2 pts)
15:00 - ENG - Crewe beat Lincoln @ 1.73 (2 pts)
15:00 - ENG - Gillingham beat Morecambe @ 1.69 (2 pts)
19:00 - SPA - Valencia win at Almeria @ 2.02 (2 pts)
19:45 - ITA - Milan clean sheet v Sampdoria @ 1.79 (2 pts)
21:00 - SPA - Barcelona win at Real Madrid @ 2.54 (2 pts)

SUNDAY 17Apr11
16:00 - SPA - Lay Sociedad v Gijon @ 2.24 (2 pts)

Other bets tweeted this week from @mightytractor or on facebook:
Tuesday - Lay Swansea v Hull @ 1.75 (2 pts)
Tuesday - Notts County win at Yeovil @ 4.0 (2 pts)
Tuesday - Preston win at Doncaster @ 3.35 (2 pts)
Friday - Norwich beat Forest @ 1.99 (2 pts)
Sunday - Marseille win at Montpellier @ 2.22 (2 pts)

BETTING: Wk36 Tips for weekend 8-10 Apr

FRIDAY 08Apr
ENG League 2: Accrington win at Macclesfield (draw no bet) @ 1.55 (2 pts)
GER Bundesliga: Bremen win at Frankfurt (draw no bet) @ 1.86 (2 pts)

SATURDAY 09Apr
ENG Premier League: Man Utd beat Fulham @ 1.48 (2 pts)
ENG League 2: Gillingham win at Lincoln @ 2.18 (2 pts)
ENG League 2: Bury win at Northampton @ 2.60 (2 pts)
FRA Ligue 1: Bordeaux v Arles (either team scores 0) @ 1.63 (2 pts)

SUNDAY 10Apr
SPA BBVA: Espanyol win at Hercules @ 4.0 (2 pts)

Other bets tweeted this week from @MightyTractor, or posted on Facebook by MightyTractor:

TUESDAY 05Apr
ENG League 2: Accrington win/win v Southend @ 2.90 (2 pts)
ENG League 2: Accrington draw/win v Southend @ 5.0 (2 pts)

BETTING: US Masters Golf action

First of all, I'd like to make it clear that I am a very casual golf fan.  Like a horse-racing punter who only bets when it comes to the Grand National, when it comes to Golf, I'm that man when it comes to the masters.

As ever, the goal is to make a profit, not to dine out and/or retire.

Right, disclaimers aside, I have done quite a bit of reading on masters stats and players histories/form and have decided to (casually) bet the following...

To finish in the top-10:
Lee Westwood @ 2.98 (2 pts)
Phil Mickelson @ 1.73 (2 pts)
Luke Donald @ 3.40 (2 pts)

To finish in the top-20:
Paul Casey @ 2.38 (2 pts)

To make the cut:
Ian Poulter @ 1.51 (5 pts)

Poker Results - Mar 2011

Although I put in only 3,997 hands during March, it was certainly eventful!


I started off very promisingly, followed by a pretty big downswing over a couple of sessions where I dropped about 8 buy-ins.  I spent the rest of the month vowing to recover and end the month break-even.  I played pretty well, and only some pretty sick coolers against one opponent in particular on the last day of the month stopped me ending up in profit.


All things considered, I'm happy to end the month down only 1.9 buy-ins!

Buy-ins: -1.9 over 3,977 hands.
Win-rate: -2.44 PTBB/100.

Below is my graph for the month with winnings (in PTBB) on y, and number of hands played on x.

BETTING: Wk35 Tips for weekend 01-03 Apr

ENGLAND
Watford win at Coventry @ 2.88 (2 pts)
Accrington beat Northampton @ 1.95 (2 pts)

FRANCE
Marseille win at Lens @ 2.10 (2 pts)

ITALY
Udinese win at Lecce @ 1.83 (2 pts)
Lecce v Udinese - either team fails to score @ 2.36 (2 pts)

SPAIN
Real Madrid win/win v Gijon @ 1.67 (2 pts)

BETTING: Wk34 Tips for weekend 25-27 Mar

International weekend and as usual, anyone who is a clear favourite is down in the stupidly low price region of <1.08.  The only way to get much value on weekends like this is to put together a 'dead cert' accumulator to try and get a worthwhile return on your money, which is what I've attempted to do below.

INTERNATIONALS

Accumulator @ 1.75 (2 pts)

• France win at Luxembourg
• Spain beat Czech Republic
• Slovakia win at Andorra
• Germany beat Kazakhstan
• Greece win at Malta

ENGLAND

Cheltenham v Gillingham draw @ 3.55 (2 pts)

Cheltenham can do anything - good or bad - on their day so this bet is mainly based around Gillingham.  They have drawn their last 7 consecutive away games to complete an incredible run of 8 draws in their last 11.  They are unbeaten in 12 and the only times they have lost in 2011 have been against runaway leaders Chesterfield and promotion-chasing Wycombe.  I don't see a home win here, but even at 2.30 to win, Gillingham have drawn too many to make it good value.

Torquay win at Northampton - draw no bet @ 2.04 (2 pts)

Northampton haven't won in 11 games now, drawing 7 of them.

Torquay have a top-6 away record and have won 3 of their last 4.  They have also bought in Antonio Murray on loan from Ipswich, who scored his first goal last time out in the win over Cheltenham and is a very promising young striker.  Particularly at this level.

Other bets tweeted this week from @MightyTractor

Brighton beat Notts County @ 1.60 (2 pts)

BETTING: Wk33 Tips for weekend 18-20 Mar

ENGLAND
Man Utd win/win v Bolton @ 2.26 (2 pts)
United have won all bar one of their home games this season (13/14). United have also only failed to be winning at home going into the break on a single occasion (v Liverpool).  Of their 14 home games, United have matched the win/win on 12 occasions.
Bolton have lost half their away games and have gone on to lose every single time they've gone in behind at HT.  They seem to struggle to make much of an impression at the big sides and have lost to Arsenal, City, Spurs, Chelsea and Liverpool already.

Brighton win at Oldham @ 2.24 (2 pts)
Oldham have lost 4 on the bounce and haven't won in 9.  During that run they've only scored 3 goals.
Brighton have one of the best away records in League One and have now won 7 of their last 9, notching up 20 goals to 7 in that run.  In direct contract to Oldham, Brighton have won their last 4 straight.

Bradford beat Northampton @ 2.38 (2 pts)
Since news of Peter Taylor's departure, Bradford have turned their form around, winning 3 from their last 4 and posessing a middle-of-the-table home record for a team who a couple of weeks ago looked set for a serious battle to stay in the league.
Northampton have had an awful couple of months.  Since stuffing Crewe on 1st Feb, they drew 6 consecutive games, then lost their next game, so Ian sampson was sacked.  However, since Gary Johnson took over, another 3 losses followed, taking their winless run to 10 games.

ITALY
Udinese clean sheet v Catania @ 2.18 (2 pts)
I always like to bash Catania's away record, and this week will be no different.  Still no win on the road this season, and only 7 goals scored in 13 (none in 3).
By contrast, Udinese have kept 6 consecutive clean sheets and are in amazing form, winning 8 from 10 (GD +22), and are unbeaten in 12.

BETTING: Wk 33 Tips for 15-18 Mar

ENGLAND

A trio of away wins...

League One
Huddersfield win at Brentford @ 2.84 (2 pts)
Orient win at Hartlepool @ 2.94 (2 pts)
Peterborough win at Wednesday @ 2.64 (2 pts)

BETTING: Wk 32 - Weekend tips 11-13 Mar 2011

ENGLAND
Leyton Orient beat Oldham @ 1.89 (2 pts)
Orient lost 2 of their first 3 home games of the season, but since then they have won 8 and drawn 4, scoring an average of 2 goals per game at Brisbane Road. They've won 5 of their last 6 and are unbeaten in 12.
Oldham are in a poor run of form, with no win in 8, no away win in 6 and only 2 goals in their last 7 games, 5 of which they lost.

Dagenham win at Swindon @ 3.80 (2 pts)
Swindon haven't won a game since Charlie Austin left for Burnley during the window. That's now 13 games, during which they've only picked up 4 points. Goals have dried up too, scoring only 6 times. They have lost 5 of their last 6, scoring only twice.
Despite also being in the relgation zone, Dagenham have won their last 2 games and have a very positive record against other League 1 strugglers. Swindon could also be layed here.

FRANCE
Sochaux v Lyon >2.5goals @ 2.20 (2 pts)
Average goals in a Sochaux home game: 2.76, average goals in a Lyon away game: 3.08.
Aside from Lyon, Sochaux have played the rest of the teams challenging for the title at home this year already. In 3 games from 4, there were 3+ goals.
When playing non-title-chasers away from home, Lyon have been involves in 3+ games on 6 occasions from 9.

ITALY
Inter win/win at Brescia @ 2.92 (2 pts)
Inter draw/win at Brescia @ 4.70 (2 pts)
Brescia are very much at the wrong end of the table, and the only wins they have mustered in their last 23 have come against fellow strugglers Bari, Parma and Sampdoria.
Inter are on a superb run, taking 33 points from their last 39. Even under Rafa Benitez they were never beaten by a team as lowly as Brescia. In their last 4 wins away from home, Inter have been drawing at HT. Alternative bet is to simply back Inter at about 1.70.

SPAIN
Real Madrid win/win v Hercules @ 1.53 (2 pts)
Real Madrid clean sheet v Hercules @ 1.78 (2 pts)
Real have conceded only 6 goals at home this season. As I have blogged previously, Hercules have scored only 3 away all season, and not at all since October (now 9 games), picking up just a single point.
Assuming, given the above, that Real will win (they've won 13/13 at home this season), there is very little value at 1.17. Far better value is the win/win, given that Hercules have been behind at half-time in each of their last 6 away games.

Zaragoza +1.5 v Valencia @ 1.25 (2 pts)
Zaragoza haven't lost a home game by more than 1 goal aside from the visits of elite sides Barcelona, Real Madrid and Villarreal (and the first game of the season against Malaga). Perhaps this makes this bet a little risky being as Valencia are also one the the 'elite', but Zaragoza have had some reasonable results recently and even Barca and Atletico struggled to beat them, while Bilbao lost.
Valencia haven't won an away game by more than a single goal all season and will hopefully be depressed and jaded following their Champions League exit midweek in Schalke.

Other bets tweeted:
Braga v Liverpool <3.5goals @ 1.23 (2 pts)
Kiev v Man City <2.5goals @ 1.70 (2 pts)

BETTING: Wk 32 - Midweek tips 8-9 Mar 2011

ENGLAND

Championship
QPR win at Millwall (draw no bet) @ 1.93 (5 pts)
Preston v Leeds draw @ 3.70 (2 pts)

League One
Plymouth beat Swindon @ 2.56 (5 pts)

League Two
Aldershot v Torquay draw @ 3.55 (2 pts)
Southend v Gillingham draw @ 3.55 (2 pts)

BETTING: Wk 31 - Weekend tips 5/6 Mar 2011

ENGLAND
Forest v Hull draw @ 3.65 (2 pts)
Forest are still unbeaten at home this season, but their recent form has stuttered, winning only 1 from their last 6, and having to score last-minute equalisers twice.
Hull were beaten last week for only the second time in their last 19 matches (both came at home to promotion-chasing sides Leicester and Cardiff). In fact, Hull haven't been beaten on the road since visiting Burnley in late-September - 12 trips.  This match was their last heavy beating of the season and since this game, Hull have scored in every away game bar one, so I back these sides to cancel each other out.  If I was feeling brave, I'd say a score draw is on the cards.

Portsmouth beat Sheff Utd @ 1.84 (2 pts)
Portsmouth are back and finally showing the form to match the quality players at their disposal.  They have won each of their last 5 games without conceding, 3 of which came at home and, interestingly, in each case the game was goalless at HT.
The Blades continue to impress at the audition for League 1 status, and are without a win anywhere for 13 matches total (8 away). Rarely is there a case where such an in-form team meets the opposite and if Portsmouth don't get a result, I might break something.

FRANCE
Lay Lille at Marseille @ 4.20 (2 pts)
This may seem a strage one, given Marseille are 3rd and Lille are top-of-the-league, but there is a reason that Marseille are quite close to being odds-on to win this one - and here it is.
Lille have won 4 away games this season and statistically have the 3rd-best away record in the league, but look a little closer and you'll find these wins came away to the teams in 14th, 15th, 19th and 20th.  When it comes to visiting half-decent teams, Lille don't seem to do the business.
The word coming out of France is that Marseille will be champions this season and have clicked into top-gear in recent weeks.  Unbeaten in 9, won their last 4 and unbeaten at home since the opening day of the season. Contrary to league positions, a Lille win here would be a surprise.

GERMANY
Lay Werder Bremen at Freiburg @ 2.90 (2 pts)
The only home defeat Freiburg have suffered since mid-September was against runaway leaders Dortmund.  From October onwards their home record is P9 W6 D2 L1.  Although their overall record recently has seen them only win as many games as they've lost in their last 8, they still show no sign of being beaten at home, not even being behind at HT since late-September.
Bremen continue to under-impress.  They've won only twice since late-October (no wins in 6) and a last-gasp equaliser at Mainz in early-February was the only goal they've scored in their last 7 away matches.  Bremen's only away win this season came at table-proppers Borossia MG, so to lay them at these odds away to a team with the 5th best home record in the Bundesliga is very good value.

SPAIN
Lay Almeria at Hercules - draw no bet @ 2.96 (2 pts)
If a gander at Hercules' results this season makes you wonder if I've lost mind, look a little closer. Yes yes, I know they've failed to score in 7 of their last 8 games, losing 6, but the fact is that the only teams to win there this season are Bilbao, Barcelona, Valencia and Real Madrid.  These sides are 4 of the top-6.  The pattern emerges further when I tell you that every other visiting team (6) have been beaten, with the exception of Getafe who got a 0-0 in Hercules' last home game.
Almeria are bottom-of-the-table and have lost their last 5 away games.  I could see them scoring, maybe drawing, but probably not winning.

Other tweeted bets
Celtic beat Rangers in 90 mins @ 2.02 (2 pts)

Poker Results - Feb 2011

Despite not playing much this month, I had a decent month at the tables:
Buy-ins: +5.4 over 3,596 hands.
Win-rate: +8.06 PTBB/100.

Below is my graph for the month with winnings (in PTBB) on y, and number of hands played on x.

BETTING: Wk 31 - Midweek tips 1/2 Mar 2011

ENGLAND
Lay Colchester at Bristol Rovers @ 2.50 (2 pts)
Although generally speaking Rovers are on a shocking run (3 points from possible 24), they do show signs of life at home, with a recent win against Oldham and a decent scoring record of late for a team in such a poor league position.
Colchester haven't scored more than 1 in an away match in their last 7, with 5 blanks.  They also haven't won away since 30th October.

Aldershot v Gillingham draw @ 3.45 (2 pts)
Before losing at home to Port Vale last time out, Aldershot had drawn 5 in-a-row.
Gillingham have drawn 5 of their last 6 (3 away).

SPAIN
Sevilla v Gijon - Asian handicap Gijon +1.0 & +1.5 @ 1.80 (2 pts)
Sevilla have won only 3 home games by more than a single goal this season, and only 1 against a bottom-half team (Levante).
Despite Gijon's seemingly poor away record, they have in fact done very well (in asian handicap terms) against elite & top sides.  They only lost by a single goal away to Barca and Espanyol, and drew away to Valencia & Villarreal. Actually, in 10 games against the current top-7, they have only lost by 2+ on two occasions, including a 2-0 against Sevilla in the reverse fixture.

Villarreal v Hercules - either team scores 0 @ 2.04 (2 pts)
As I said the last time Hercules were away, the main reasoning here is that they have scored a pathetic 3 away goals all season and ironically, 2 of those came in their first game of the season away to Barcelona of all teams!  They haven't scored away in the league since late October, a run of 8 games during which they have shipped 16 goals and picked up just 1 point.

BETTING: Wk 30 - Weekend tips 25/27 Feb 2011

ENGLAND
Lay Middlesbrough v QPR @ 2.82 (2 pts)
QPR's win against a resurgent Ipswich in midweek put them in an extremely strong position  at the top of the Championship and they are now unbeaten in 9.  They've only lost 2 away games this season (against Norwich and Leeds - both very good sides), and 'boro aren't in that bracket for quality.
Despite an impressive win at Milwall in midweek, all but 2 of Middlesbrough's 10 wins this season have come against sides who won't be in the mix come the end-of-season promotion/playoff picture.  This leads me to the conclusion that they won't beat QPR who are by far and away the best side in the division.


Lay Walsall v Rochdale @ 2.60 (2 pts)
Walsall have given themselves a fighting chance of avoiding relegation with 3 wins in their last 6 (although all against bottom-half sides and 2 came against the bottom 2 teams in the division).  Of their 8 wins this season, only 1 came against top-half opposition.
Rochdale are unbeaten in 2011 (10 games), don't tend to concede many goals and shouldn't lose here.

Aldershot v Port Vale draw @ 3.45 (2 pts)
Aldershot are in a run of 5 consecutive draws and Port Vale have slumped since Micky Adams' departure for Sheff Utd, with only 3 wins from 11 scuppering their previously decent promotion chances.  They haven't won away since Adams left so the teams aren't as far apart as the league table suggests.


FRANCE
St Etienne clean sheet v Nice @ 2.28 (2 pts)
The fact that St Etienne have lost their last 2 games, conceding 6 goals in total is skewed by the opposition (Lyon & Marseille).  The big facts of interest here concern Nice's inability to score goals:

• Only 4 away goals all season (12 games).
• No away goals in their last 4.
• Only 2 goals in their last 8 (home & away).
• Have failed to score in 13/24 games this season (home & away).

ITALY
Catania v Genoa <2.5goals @ 1.64 (2 pts)
As I've blogged previously, Genoa's away record reads like binary.  Here are some facts:

• Their last 5 away games have all had 1 goal or less, 3 ending 0-0.
• Over the entire season away (13 games), only 2 have contained more than 2 goals.
• 4 of their last 7 have ended goalless.

9 of Catania's 13 home games have had 2 goals or less.

Other tweeted/facebooked bets:
Arsenal v Birmingham >2.5 goals @ 1.94 (2 pts)
Arsenal v Birmingham - both sides score @ 2.20 (2 pts)

BETTING: Week 30 - Tips for Midweek 22nd - 24th Feb 2011

ENGLAND
Leicester win at Cardiff - draw no bet @ 2.12 (2 pts)
Cardiff seem to be at their annual 'bottling it' stage of the season.  They scraped late wins against Swansea and Scunthorpe and followed that with a draw at home to Burnley and a defeat at Forest.  Whilst neither of these results are anything to be shamed of, Leicester's form needs serious consideration.
Sven's boys have won 7 from 8 and 3 of their last 4 away.  Granted, these results have almost all come against teams you'd expect to finish in the bottom-half, but Cardiff have lost at home to 3 of the current top-6 and will have to dig deep to win here.

Hull win at Derby - draw no bet @ 2.10 (2 pts)
If the Leicester bet was good value then this is phenomenal.
Derby are currently on an abysmal run of 1 win in 13 (9 defeats) and have only scored 2 goals in their last 7.  Their home record is in the bottom quarter for the division.
On the other hand, Hull have only lost once in 17 games - against Leicester as it happens - and tend to win away against struggling sides.

Norwich beat Doncaster @ 1.51 (2 pts)
Norwich can beat anyone at home and have a side packed with goals.  Interestingly, they have scored a last-minute goal in 4 of their last 5 home games.
Doncaster continue to drop like a stone, losing their last 4 games, conceding 12 goals without managing a single one themselves.  They've lost 7 of their last 9 matches and have a relegation-battling away record.

Bournemouth beat Sheff Wed @ 1.89 (2 pts)
Considering Wednesday's problems...

• No win in 9.
• 7 straight away league defeats.
• Stuffed at Birmingham in the cup last weekend.
• Shipped 20 goals in their last 6 away games, scoring only 5.
• Gary Megson.

...1.89 on almost anyone in League 1 to beat them at home at the moment would seem decent value.  

Let alone a Bournemouth side who boast the best home record in the league, have taken 14 points from their last 18 and have earned more points in games vs bottom-half teams than anyone else in the division.

BETTING: Week 29 - Tips for Weekend 19th & 20th Feb 2011

ENGLAND
Lay Sheff Utd at Crystal Palace @ 3.60 (2 pts)
Despite struggling in the league, Palace have an excellent home record of late.  They haven't lost at Selhurst sine Swansea won there at the end of October, and haven't conceded a single goal in their last 7 home games, during which there have been three 1-0 wins, three 0-0 draws and a 2-0 win.
United's form is pretty abysmal and they have only scored 1 goal from open play in their last 6 games.  They haven't won in 6 away.

FRANCE
Lorient beat Bordeaux - draw no bet @ 1.82 (3 pts)
Whilst Lorient sit below Bordeaux in the table, and are a pretty average side, there's still a great deal of value in the home win here.  They haven't conceded in 4 home games, are unbeaten in 8 at home and have turned over top-5 sides Lyon and Rennes, whilst PSG could only draw there.  Lorient's home record is among the best in the league.  Bordeaux have drawn 6 of their last 9 games and their only win in that time came at home to Nice.  The same Nice that have scored only 4 away goals all season.  I considered laying Bordeaux at approx 3.30 and it was a close call between the two.

GERMANY
Schalke win at Borossia MG - draw no bet @ 1.60 (2 pts)
BMG have only picked up 3 points from 33 at home this season, and are winless so far.  They have somehow managed to ship 28 goals in those 11 matches.  BMG's top scorer is also suspended for this game.
Schalke are coming off the back of a great 1-1 away at Valencia in the Champions League midweek.  Although they haven't scored more than 1 goal in a match since before Christmas they have only conceded 2 in their last 8 league games.  Schalke's last 3 away matches have resulted in impressive 1-0 wins at Hannover (4th), Mainz (5th) and Dortmund (runaway leaders).

HOLLAND
Groningen beat Roda @ 1.74 (3 pts)
Groningen have won 10/12 home games this season, and have beaten every visiting non-elite side.
Roda were on fire away from home in the opening months of the season, so their away record looks a bit better than it actually is at the moment.  Their only away win since late October came against the ever-atrocious VVV Venlo.  They have lost the last 3 away, 2 agsinst teams in the bottom 6 including a stuffing at Vitesse who, even now, are still the joint lowest home scorers in the league.

ADO beat Feyenoord @ 2.06 (2 pts)
ADO have won 5 straight matches, including a win at the mighty PSV (however 2 have been against woeful VVV Venlo and Willem II).
Feyenoord are still yet to win away and are having a shocker of a season for such a huge club.  They've picked up only 4 points away from home, all came with draws against teams in the bottom-half.  When they've travelled to anyone decent, they've always been beaten.

SPAIN
Sevilla v Hercules - either team scores 0 @ 2.22 (2 pts)
Sevilla have failed to score in 2 out of 12 home games this season, which doesn't make great reading considering the proposed bet I know (as an aside, both games were against strugglers like Hercules).
The main reasoning here is that Hercules have scored a pathetic 3 away goals all season and ironically, 2 of those came in their first game of the season away to Barcelona of all teams!  They haven't scored away in the league since late October, a run of 7 games during which they have shipped 15 goals and picked up just 1 point.  Hercules will also be without Nelson Valdez, who has 7 goals this season.

Real Madrid draw/win v Levante @ 5.30 (2 pts)
Real have won all 11 home games in the league this season, 5 of which have been drawing at half-time.
Levante have gone in level at the break in 7 of their last 9, and have gone in 0-0 away at the break against the only 2 other elite sides they've visited this season so far (Barca and Villarreal).
The bare stats say you only need to get >3.25 to be profitable on this bet, so getting 5.20 makes it a good bet.

BETTING: Week 28 - Tips for Weekend 12th & 13th Feb 2011

ENGLAND
Liverpool win/win v Wigan @ 2.04 (2 pts)
Liverpool are back in form and have won their last 4 with the 2nd best home record in the Premiership. Wigan are unpredictable as ever, but with the home win offering as little as 1.35, this is the best value bet for this game.

Rochdale beat Sheff Wed @ 2.70 (2pts)
Lay Sheff Wed @ Rochdale @ 2.80 (2 pts)
Rochdale have an average home record overall, but haven't actually lost a home match since early October. They are unbeaten in 9.
Wednesday haven't won in 7, and have lost their last 5 on the road, shipping 17 goals in the process.

Wycombe win at Bradford @ 2.44 (2 pts)
Bradford have lost 5 of their last 6, including home defeats to very average sides (Lincoln and second-bottom Barnet).
Wycombe have one of the best away records in league two and have won 7 of their last 9 in the league.

FRANCE
Rennes beat Nice @ 1.60 (2 pts)
Rennes have been great at home and pony away. They've won their last 5 at home (often 1-0), but haven't won away in their last 7.
Nice have one of the worst away records in the league and haven't won away since their opening away game of the season (10 matches). They won last time out at home to Sochaux, but have only scored 4 goals in their last 10 games, and haven't scored more than 1 goal in any game since early November. They don't often get caned away from home, usually drawing or losing by a single goal so there's almost certain to be < 2.5 goals in this one (if you fancy another punt). If I were feeling precise I'd stick some cash on 1-0 to Rennes.

HOLLAND
NEC beat Excelsior @ 1.50 (4 pts)
NEC v Excelsior draw @ 4.80 (2 pts)
The only games NEC have lost at home this season are against elite side Twente, and pain-in-the-neck AZ. Having said that, they've drawn 5 of their last 6 overall, and 4 of their last 6 home games. Excelsior's away record reads W0 D2 L8.

ITALY
Bari v Genoa < 2.5 goals @ 1.65 (2 pts)
This is a simple numbers-based bet. Average goals in Bari home games = 2.08, average goals in Genoa away games = 1.26. Therefore predicted goals in this game = 1.67. In fact, of Genoa's last 7 away games, 6 have had a single goal or less (including 3 0-0 draws). Bari have only scored 5 in 14 league games. If someone offers you a free ticket to this one, say you're washing your hair.

SPAIN
Lay Athletico Madrid v Valencia @ 2.16 (2 pts)
Athletico are in a poor run of form, with only 4 points from a possible 18, of which 4 were games they really should be winning.
Valencia, by contrast, are in a sick run of form and haven't lost in 8. They have scored 4 last-minute goals (3 winners) in that time.

BETTING: Week 27 - Tips for Weekend 5th & 6th Feb 2011

ENGLAND
Ipswich to beat Sheffield Utd @ 2.02 (2 pts)
Ipswich's form has turned around under Paul Jewell and they have won their last 2 in the league. Sheff Utd haven't won in 7 games, and have only picked up 1 point from their last 4 away games.


GERMANY
Leverkusen win at Nurnberg @ 2.14 (2 pts)
Lay Nurnberg v Leverkusen @ 3.90 (2 pts)
Nurnberg's home form is up and down, but they don't tend to beat the elite sides wherever they play. Leverkusen haven't lost away from home yet this season, winning 7 and drawing 2 of their 9 games. So it all points to lay the home side and Leverkusen provide decent value for the win.


SPAIN
Zaragoza beat Santander - draw no bet @ 1.52 (2 pts)
After recording only 1 win in their opening 16 matches this season, Zaragoza have now won 4 of the last 5, with only a defeat at Espanyol's "fortress" ruining their record. These 4 wins all came against teams in the bottom half, which is firmly where Racing sit. Racing are yet to win away this season and have the second-worst away record in the league. They haven't won in 8, but have put in some decent away performances recently with a narrow defeat at Bilbao and creditable draws away to Atletico and Mallorca, all sides who would expect to take 3 points against Racing. This is why the DNB is the safest option here, Racing shouldn't win, but they could draw.


Real Madrid HTdraw FTwin v Sociedad @ 5.60 (2 pts)
Real have won 10/10 at home this season. 5 of those were win/win and the other half were draw/win (including their last 4). Odds of 5.60 to hope that Sociedad can hold out until half time - before inevitably losing to a Ronaldo goal with about 20 mins to go - make this worth a punt.

ITALY
Lay Catania at Bologna @ 4.30 (2 pts)
Like in midweek, I'm still riding the 'Catania don't win away from home' bandwagon. Add to that a Bologna side with geriatric Marco Di Vaio banging in the goals and only 1 home defeat all season (against top-of-the-league Milan), and it should roll on for another week.


Milan win at Genoa @ 2.08 (2 pts)
Lay Genoa v Milan @ 4.30 (2 pts)
Genoa have been pretty ropey of late, with only 1 win from 6 since the winter break, they have also failed to score in 5 of their last 7. Genoa have played each of the top 5 once this season and their record is W0,D1,L4, scoring only once in the process. Milan haven't lost away since early September and shouldn't here.

HOLLAND
Lay Feyenoord at Vitesse @ 3.35 (2 pts)
Feyenoord have only 3 away points all season and have lost their last 3 games. Despite Vitesse having lost 4 home games this season, three came against the 3 elite sides (PSV, Ajax, Twente) so this stat is a bit skewed. Vitesse are in fact reasonably solid at home and don't get beaten by muppets. Which is what Feyenoord have been playing like this season, particularly away.

BETTING: Tips for midweek 1st - 3rd Feb 2011

ENGLAND
Bournemouth beat Swindon at 1.78 (2 pts)
The departure of Eddie Howe doesn't seem to have affected Bournemouth as badly as expected.  Since he left for Burnley, Bournemouth have won 2 and drawn 1, including a win over league leaders Brighton.  They've also won 10 of 13 at home this season.
Swindon have only picked up 2 pts from the last 15, scoring only once in those 5 games.  They have also lost star player and leading scorer Charlie Austin to Burnley during the window.

Chesterfield win at Stockport at 1.67 (2 pts)
Stockport are without a win in 7, and without a home win since mid-October.  They seem doomed to relegation to the conference and are generally rubbish.
Chesterfield are top of the league and are unbeaten in 8, with the 3rd best away record in the division.  As such, 1.67 looks decent value.

ITALY
Fiorentina v Genoa to have < 2.5 goals at 1.70 (2 pts)
Genoa have drawn 3 of their last 4 away games 0-0 and 7 of their 10 away games this season have had only 1 goal or less.

Lay Catania @ Cesena at 3.35 (2 pts)
Whilst Cesena are 3rd from bottom and hardly setting the world alight, they've lost less than half their home games this season.  The real motive for this bet is Catania's shocklingly bad away record.  3 away wins in the past 2.5 seasons (and only 6 away goals in 10 games this season) says it all.

Twitter

Please follow me on Twitter for all the latest blog updates @MightyTractor

BETTING: Tips for Sunday 30th Jan 2011

HOLLAND
Lay Ajax at NAC Breda at 1.60 (2 pts)
To sum up NAC, they are great at home and rubbish away.  They are unbeaten in their last 5 at home, winning 4, including against elite sides PSV & Twente.  NAC beaten only once at home all season.
In contrast, Ajax have been average away from home and got stuffed last time out at Utrecht.  Add to that the Luiz Suarez situation meaning he may not play and 1.60 seems way too short.

ITALY
Inter beat Palermo at 1.71 (2 pts)
Since Rafael Benitez was put out of his misery and replaced with Leonardo at Inter, their form has completely turned around.  They have won 4 from 5 since he took over, and 3 from 3 at home.  They lost last time out away to Udinese (who have now won their last 5 at home and are unbeaten at Stadio Friuli since mid-September, so no disgrace there)!
Palermo, whilst decent at home and sitting just 2 places below Inter in the league, are average on the road.  They've only picked up 2 points from a possible 12 in their last 4 away games, 3 of which came away to teams with 3 of the bottom 5 home records in Serie A.  In the 2 games they've played away against the top 5 so far this season, they lost them both (to Napoli and Milan), and lost the reverse fixture at home to Inter back in September.

BETTING: Season-long Everton Prop Bet

A few days before the start of the season, I agreed a bet with a mate of mine based on the number of points Everton would get this season.
I named the line, then he could decide to go over/under for £1.50 per point.
Just before naming the line at 62.5 pts, Martin O'Neill resigned from Aston Villa.  Taking Villa's likely demise into account as a result, I adjusted to 64.5 pts, he chose 'the over', so here's hoping for a miserable season on the blue half of Merseyside! (sorry mate).

Welcome to MightyTractor's Betting & Gaming Blog

This blog will feature...

SPORTS BETTING: My tips and progress on how I'm doing overall.
POKER: Interesting hands I've played or seen recently, plus updates on how I'm getting on.
RANTS & OPINIONS: General discussion.