BETTING: Wk 30 - Weekend tips 25/27 Feb 2011

ENGLAND
Lay Middlesbrough v QPR @ 2.82 (2 pts)
QPR's win against a resurgent Ipswich in midweek put them in an extremely strong position  at the top of the Championship and they are now unbeaten in 9.  They've only lost 2 away games this season (against Norwich and Leeds - both very good sides), and 'boro aren't in that bracket for quality.
Despite an impressive win at Milwall in midweek, all but 2 of Middlesbrough's 10 wins this season have come against sides who won't be in the mix come the end-of-season promotion/playoff picture.  This leads me to the conclusion that they won't beat QPR who are by far and away the best side in the division.


Lay Walsall v Rochdale @ 2.60 (2 pts)
Walsall have given themselves a fighting chance of avoiding relegation with 3 wins in their last 6 (although all against bottom-half sides and 2 came against the bottom 2 teams in the division).  Of their 8 wins this season, only 1 came against top-half opposition.
Rochdale are unbeaten in 2011 (10 games), don't tend to concede many goals and shouldn't lose here.

Aldershot v Port Vale draw @ 3.45 (2 pts)
Aldershot are in a run of 5 consecutive draws and Port Vale have slumped since Micky Adams' departure for Sheff Utd, with only 3 wins from 11 scuppering their previously decent promotion chances.  They haven't won away since Adams left so the teams aren't as far apart as the league table suggests.


FRANCE
St Etienne clean sheet v Nice @ 2.28 (2 pts)
The fact that St Etienne have lost their last 2 games, conceding 6 goals in total is skewed by the opposition (Lyon & Marseille).  The big facts of interest here concern Nice's inability to score goals:

• Only 4 away goals all season (12 games).
• No away goals in their last 4.
• Only 2 goals in their last 8 (home & away).
• Have failed to score in 13/24 games this season (home & away).

ITALY
Catania v Genoa <2.5goals @ 1.64 (2 pts)
As I've blogged previously, Genoa's away record reads like binary.  Here are some facts:

• Their last 5 away games have all had 1 goal or less, 3 ending 0-0.
• Over the entire season away (13 games), only 2 have contained more than 2 goals.
• 4 of their last 7 have ended goalless.

9 of Catania's 13 home games have had 2 goals or less.

Other tweeted/facebooked bets:
Arsenal v Birmingham >2.5 goals @ 1.94 (2 pts)
Arsenal v Birmingham - both sides score @ 2.20 (2 pts)

BETTING: Week 30 - Tips for Midweek 22nd - 24th Feb 2011

ENGLAND
Leicester win at Cardiff - draw no bet @ 2.12 (2 pts)
Cardiff seem to be at their annual 'bottling it' stage of the season.  They scraped late wins against Swansea and Scunthorpe and followed that with a draw at home to Burnley and a defeat at Forest.  Whilst neither of these results are anything to be shamed of, Leicester's form needs serious consideration.
Sven's boys have won 7 from 8 and 3 of their last 4 away.  Granted, these results have almost all come against teams you'd expect to finish in the bottom-half, but Cardiff have lost at home to 3 of the current top-6 and will have to dig deep to win here.

Hull win at Derby - draw no bet @ 2.10 (2 pts)
If the Leicester bet was good value then this is phenomenal.
Derby are currently on an abysmal run of 1 win in 13 (9 defeats) and have only scored 2 goals in their last 7.  Their home record is in the bottom quarter for the division.
On the other hand, Hull have only lost once in 17 games - against Leicester as it happens - and tend to win away against struggling sides.

Norwich beat Doncaster @ 1.51 (2 pts)
Norwich can beat anyone at home and have a side packed with goals.  Interestingly, they have scored a last-minute goal in 4 of their last 5 home games.
Doncaster continue to drop like a stone, losing their last 4 games, conceding 12 goals without managing a single one themselves.  They've lost 7 of their last 9 matches and have a relegation-battling away record.

Bournemouth beat Sheff Wed @ 1.89 (2 pts)
Considering Wednesday's problems...

• No win in 9.
• 7 straight away league defeats.
• Stuffed at Birmingham in the cup last weekend.
• Shipped 20 goals in their last 6 away games, scoring only 5.
• Gary Megson.

...1.89 on almost anyone in League 1 to beat them at home at the moment would seem decent value.  

Let alone a Bournemouth side who boast the best home record in the league, have taken 14 points from their last 18 and have earned more points in games vs bottom-half teams than anyone else in the division.

BETTING: Week 29 - Tips for Weekend 19th & 20th Feb 2011

ENGLAND
Lay Sheff Utd at Crystal Palace @ 3.60 (2 pts)
Despite struggling in the league, Palace have an excellent home record of late.  They haven't lost at Selhurst sine Swansea won there at the end of October, and haven't conceded a single goal in their last 7 home games, during which there have been three 1-0 wins, three 0-0 draws and a 2-0 win.
United's form is pretty abysmal and they have only scored 1 goal from open play in their last 6 games.  They haven't won in 6 away.

FRANCE
Lorient beat Bordeaux - draw no bet @ 1.82 (3 pts)
Whilst Lorient sit below Bordeaux in the table, and are a pretty average side, there's still a great deal of value in the home win here.  They haven't conceded in 4 home games, are unbeaten in 8 at home and have turned over top-5 sides Lyon and Rennes, whilst PSG could only draw there.  Lorient's home record is among the best in the league.  Bordeaux have drawn 6 of their last 9 games and their only win in that time came at home to Nice.  The same Nice that have scored only 4 away goals all season.  I considered laying Bordeaux at approx 3.30 and it was a close call between the two.

GERMANY
Schalke win at Borossia MG - draw no bet @ 1.60 (2 pts)
BMG have only picked up 3 points from 33 at home this season, and are winless so far.  They have somehow managed to ship 28 goals in those 11 matches.  BMG's top scorer is also suspended for this game.
Schalke are coming off the back of a great 1-1 away at Valencia in the Champions League midweek.  Although they haven't scored more than 1 goal in a match since before Christmas they have only conceded 2 in their last 8 league games.  Schalke's last 3 away matches have resulted in impressive 1-0 wins at Hannover (4th), Mainz (5th) and Dortmund (runaway leaders).

HOLLAND
Groningen beat Roda @ 1.74 (3 pts)
Groningen have won 10/12 home games this season, and have beaten every visiting non-elite side.
Roda were on fire away from home in the opening months of the season, so their away record looks a bit better than it actually is at the moment.  Their only away win since late October came against the ever-atrocious VVV Venlo.  They have lost the last 3 away, 2 agsinst teams in the bottom 6 including a stuffing at Vitesse who, even now, are still the joint lowest home scorers in the league.

ADO beat Feyenoord @ 2.06 (2 pts)
ADO have won 5 straight matches, including a win at the mighty PSV (however 2 have been against woeful VVV Venlo and Willem II).
Feyenoord are still yet to win away and are having a shocker of a season for such a huge club.  They've picked up only 4 points away from home, all came with draws against teams in the bottom-half.  When they've travelled to anyone decent, they've always been beaten.

SPAIN
Sevilla v Hercules - either team scores 0 @ 2.22 (2 pts)
Sevilla have failed to score in 2 out of 12 home games this season, which doesn't make great reading considering the proposed bet I know (as an aside, both games were against strugglers like Hercules).
The main reasoning here is that Hercules have scored a pathetic 3 away goals all season and ironically, 2 of those came in their first game of the season away to Barcelona of all teams!  They haven't scored away in the league since late October, a run of 7 games during which they have shipped 15 goals and picked up just 1 point.  Hercules will also be without Nelson Valdez, who has 7 goals this season.

Real Madrid draw/win v Levante @ 5.30 (2 pts)
Real have won all 11 home games in the league this season, 5 of which have been drawing at half-time.
Levante have gone in level at the break in 7 of their last 9, and have gone in 0-0 away at the break against the only 2 other elite sides they've visited this season so far (Barca and Villarreal).
The bare stats say you only need to get >3.25 to be profitable on this bet, so getting 5.20 makes it a good bet.

BETTING: Week 28 - Tips for Weekend 12th & 13th Feb 2011

ENGLAND
Liverpool win/win v Wigan @ 2.04 (2 pts)
Liverpool are back in form and have won their last 4 with the 2nd best home record in the Premiership. Wigan are unpredictable as ever, but with the home win offering as little as 1.35, this is the best value bet for this game.

Rochdale beat Sheff Wed @ 2.70 (2pts)
Lay Sheff Wed @ Rochdale @ 2.80 (2 pts)
Rochdale have an average home record overall, but haven't actually lost a home match since early October. They are unbeaten in 9.
Wednesday haven't won in 7, and have lost their last 5 on the road, shipping 17 goals in the process.

Wycombe win at Bradford @ 2.44 (2 pts)
Bradford have lost 5 of their last 6, including home defeats to very average sides (Lincoln and second-bottom Barnet).
Wycombe have one of the best away records in league two and have won 7 of their last 9 in the league.

FRANCE
Rennes beat Nice @ 1.60 (2 pts)
Rennes have been great at home and pony away. They've won their last 5 at home (often 1-0), but haven't won away in their last 7.
Nice have one of the worst away records in the league and haven't won away since their opening away game of the season (10 matches). They won last time out at home to Sochaux, but have only scored 4 goals in their last 10 games, and haven't scored more than 1 goal in any game since early November. They don't often get caned away from home, usually drawing or losing by a single goal so there's almost certain to be < 2.5 goals in this one (if you fancy another punt). If I were feeling precise I'd stick some cash on 1-0 to Rennes.

HOLLAND
NEC beat Excelsior @ 1.50 (4 pts)
NEC v Excelsior draw @ 4.80 (2 pts)
The only games NEC have lost at home this season are against elite side Twente, and pain-in-the-neck AZ. Having said that, they've drawn 5 of their last 6 overall, and 4 of their last 6 home games. Excelsior's away record reads W0 D2 L8.

ITALY
Bari v Genoa < 2.5 goals @ 1.65 (2 pts)
This is a simple numbers-based bet. Average goals in Bari home games = 2.08, average goals in Genoa away games = 1.26. Therefore predicted goals in this game = 1.67. In fact, of Genoa's last 7 away games, 6 have had a single goal or less (including 3 0-0 draws). Bari have only scored 5 in 14 league games. If someone offers you a free ticket to this one, say you're washing your hair.

SPAIN
Lay Athletico Madrid v Valencia @ 2.16 (2 pts)
Athletico are in a poor run of form, with only 4 points from a possible 18, of which 4 were games they really should be winning.
Valencia, by contrast, are in a sick run of form and haven't lost in 8. They have scored 4 last-minute goals (3 winners) in that time.

BETTING: Week 27 - Tips for Weekend 5th & 6th Feb 2011

ENGLAND
Ipswich to beat Sheffield Utd @ 2.02 (2 pts)
Ipswich's form has turned around under Paul Jewell and they have won their last 2 in the league. Sheff Utd haven't won in 7 games, and have only picked up 1 point from their last 4 away games.


GERMANY
Leverkusen win at Nurnberg @ 2.14 (2 pts)
Lay Nurnberg v Leverkusen @ 3.90 (2 pts)
Nurnberg's home form is up and down, but they don't tend to beat the elite sides wherever they play. Leverkusen haven't lost away from home yet this season, winning 7 and drawing 2 of their 9 games. So it all points to lay the home side and Leverkusen provide decent value for the win.


SPAIN
Zaragoza beat Santander - draw no bet @ 1.52 (2 pts)
After recording only 1 win in their opening 16 matches this season, Zaragoza have now won 4 of the last 5, with only a defeat at Espanyol's "fortress" ruining their record. These 4 wins all came against teams in the bottom half, which is firmly where Racing sit. Racing are yet to win away this season and have the second-worst away record in the league. They haven't won in 8, but have put in some decent away performances recently with a narrow defeat at Bilbao and creditable draws away to Atletico and Mallorca, all sides who would expect to take 3 points against Racing. This is why the DNB is the safest option here, Racing shouldn't win, but they could draw.


Real Madrid HTdraw FTwin v Sociedad @ 5.60 (2 pts)
Real have won 10/10 at home this season. 5 of those were win/win and the other half were draw/win (including their last 4). Odds of 5.60 to hope that Sociedad can hold out until half time - before inevitably losing to a Ronaldo goal with about 20 mins to go - make this worth a punt.

ITALY
Lay Catania at Bologna @ 4.30 (2 pts)
Like in midweek, I'm still riding the 'Catania don't win away from home' bandwagon. Add to that a Bologna side with geriatric Marco Di Vaio banging in the goals and only 1 home defeat all season (against top-of-the-league Milan), and it should roll on for another week.


Milan win at Genoa @ 2.08 (2 pts)
Lay Genoa v Milan @ 4.30 (2 pts)
Genoa have been pretty ropey of late, with only 1 win from 6 since the winter break, they have also failed to score in 5 of their last 7. Genoa have played each of the top 5 once this season and their record is W0,D1,L4, scoring only once in the process. Milan haven't lost away since early September and shouldn't here.

HOLLAND
Lay Feyenoord at Vitesse @ 3.35 (2 pts)
Feyenoord have only 3 away points all season and have lost their last 3 games. Despite Vitesse having lost 4 home games this season, three came against the 3 elite sides (PSV, Ajax, Twente) so this stat is a bit skewed. Vitesse are in fact reasonably solid at home and don't get beaten by muppets. Which is what Feyenoord have been playing like this season, particularly away.