Grand National 2012: Tips

Based on my previous post on Grand National Key Stats, I have produced an "Avoidance Rating" (AR) for each horse.  The more key stats/trends it failed to hit, the higher its AR.  Obviously, a lower AR is better.

AR Table

My Tips:

Based on a combination of my AR table, horse write-ups and current odds, my selections are below:

• Giles Cross e/w [19.0 aka 18/1]
• According To Pete e/w [34.0 aka 33/1]
• Rare Bob e/w [51.0 aka 50/1]
• Planet Of Sound e/w [41.0 aka 40/1]

Grand National 2012: Key Stats

Hi, I've been doing plenty of research into the key stats of past Grand Nationals and have come up with the following key stats for consideration...

TOO HEAVY: 59/64 previous winners carried < 11st 6lbs in weight.

Avoid:

BALLABRIGGS (IRE) 
NEPTUNE COLLONGES (FR) 
CALGARY BAY (IRE) 
SYNCHRONISED (IRE) 
WEIRD AL (IRE) 

TOO YOUNG/OLD: 11/13 previous winners aged 9, 10 or 11, plus in past 2 yrs, none of the top 8 finishers were < 9 y.o.

Avoid:

SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM (IRE) 
ORGANISEDCONFUSION (IRE) 
ON HIS OWN (IRE) 
ALFA BEAT (IRE) 
BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 
MON MOME (FR) 
THARAWAAT (IRE) 
STATE OF PLAY
VIC VENTURI (IRE) 
HELLO BUD (IRE) 
SMOKING ACES (IRE) 
TATENEN (FR) 
QUISCOVER FONTAINE (FR) 
VIKING BLOND (FR) 
OUR ISLAND (IRE) 
IN COMPLIANCE (IRE) 

NO BIG RACE WINS: 10/10 previous winners have won a race worth >= £17k.

Avoid:

MIDNIGHT HAZE
NEPTUNE EQUESTER
ANY CURRENCY (IRE) 
ABBEYBRANEY (IRE) 
BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE (IRE) 
SWING BILL (FR) 
POSTMASTER
VIKING BLOND (FR) 
OUR ISLAND (IRE) 

LITTLE JUMP EXPERIENCE: 10/10 previous winners have run at >= 10 times over jumps.

Avoid:

CAPPA BLEU (IRE) 
ON HIS OWN (IRE)

NO PROVEN STAMINA: The National is 4m 4f long.  If a horse hasn't already won over 3m+, it's a big ask.

Avoid:

SEABASS (IRE) 
TATENEN (FR) 
QUISCOVER FONTAINE (FR) 
BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE (IRE) 
IN COMPLIANCE (IRE) 

ODDS: 20/21 previous winners have been shorter than 40/1.

Avoid:

PLANET OF SOUND
DEEP PURPLE
RARE BOB (IRE) 
ARBOR SUPREME (IRE) 
ALFA BEAT (IRE) 
BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 
THE MIDNIGHT CLUB (IRE) 
MON MOME (FR) 
THARAWAAT (IRE) 
STATE OF PLAY
MIDNIGHT HAZE
VIC VENTURI (IRE) 
HELLO BUD (IRE) 
NEPTUNE EQUESTER
ANY CURRENCY (IRE) 
ABBEYBRANEY (IRE) 
SMOKING ACES (IRE) 
WEIRD AL (IRE) 
TATENEN (FR) 
QUISCOVER FONTAINE (FR) 
SWING BILL (FR) 
POSTMASTER
VIKING BLOND (FR) 
OUR ISLAND (IRE) 
IN COMPLIANCE (IRE) 

ODDS: 17/21 previous winners have been shorter than 20/1.

Avoid:

ACCORDING TO PETE
ALWAYS RIGHT (IRE) 
TREACLE (IRE) 
NEPTUNE COLLONGES (FR) 
CALGARY BAY (IRE) 
PLANET OF SOUND
DEEP PURPLE
SEABASS (IRE) 
RARE BOB (IRE) 
ARBOR SUPREME (IRE) 
ALFA BEAT (IRE) 
BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 
THE MIDNIGHT CLUB (IRE) 
MON MOME (FR) 
THARAWAAT (IRE) 
STATE OF PLAY
MIDNIGHT HAZE
VIC VENTURI (IRE) 
HELLO BUD (IRE) 
NEPTUNE EQUESTER
ANY CURRENCY (IRE) 
ABBEYBRANEY (IRE) 
SMOKING ACES (IRE) 
WEIRD AL (IRE) 
TATENEN (FR) 
QUISCOVER FONTAINE (FR) 
BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE (IRE) 
SWING BILL (FR) 
POSTMASTER
VIKING BLOND (FR) 
OUR ISLAND (IRE) 
IN COMPLIANCE (IRE)

LITTLE REST: Worth consiering if a horse has run within the last 30 days.

Avoid:

SUNNYHILLBOY (IRE) 
KILLYGLEN (IRE) 
SYNCHRONISED (IRE) 
THE MIDNIGHT CLUB (IRE) 
WEIRD AL (IRE) 
BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE (IRE) 
SWING BILL (FR) 
POSTMASTER
IN COMPLIANCE (IRE) 

US Masters 2012: Tips

My tips for the 2012 US Masters are below.  Golf-wise, I only ever bet the Masters and the Open, and I have made and average of 60% ROI over the past 3 years betting these tourneys.  Be warned, I am not a golf expert, but I spend a long time researching stats and player histories, and finding valuebets.