Grand National 2013 - The AR table

Right, hopefully you've read my explanation of the AR system in the last post.  If not, read it.
If you still can't be bothered, I'll summarise: The lower the AR, the better.

Here is the table of ARs I have calculated for each runner in the race.

Horses greyed out have an AR of >=1.75 and have at least one major trend counting against them.  This accounts for 27/40 horses in the field (67.5%).
So, the theory is that places 1-6 should be filled by the 6 of the remaining 13 horses.  The caveat here is that this is a pretty specific prediction in a very unpredictable race.

Horses in green are the ones I have personally backed.  I always back 4 each year.  You'll notice a fifth in a slightly lighter shade, this is because I placed all my bets only to find an email from Coral's giving me a free £5 bet.  I'd been agonising between Chicago Grey and Balthazar King for a while before choosing the former, so I decided to stick the £5 on Balthazar King rather than top-up on Colbert Station.



My AR table for #GN2013

Grand National 2013 - The AR system

Hi,
I've slightly tweaked the successful system I used last year and compiled stats for this year's race.
The system is called the 'Avoidance Rating' (AR).
Firstly, don't expect this system to spit out a winner - the race is too unpredictable and there are too many variables.  It won't tell you what to bet on, but it will tell you which three-legged donkeys to avoid.
With such a huge field, the goal of this system is to help people who, quite frankly, don't have a clue where to start.  The aim is to narrow the field and cross-off up to two-thirds of the runners, allowing Mr Average to pick his bets from the remaining 10-15 horses - safe in the knowledge he shouldn't be wasting his money.
This system gives Joe Bloggs punter - who doesn't follow horse racing religiously - a chance to have a bet and (hopefully) have some excitement until the end of the race and win some money.
About the system
It uses 8 key stats from past Grand Nationals, plus 8 additional measures of my own taking into account both horse and jockey.
Each of these 16 facts then carry various weightings and produce an overall AR for each horse. 
The higher the AR, the more reasons there are to avoid it.

Last year's results (2012)

Last year the system worked very well.
Jargon:
Horses finishing in 1st-6th are referred to as 'placed'.
Horses falling, pulled up, or finishing worse than 6th are referred to as 'nowhere'.
Horses bought down by others are discounted from results.
I was immediately able to eliminate almost half the field (with an AR of >=1.75).
Of the 19 horses I eliminated, 18 of them ended up nowhere (95%).  The single exception was the 100/1 shot In Compliance which placed 5th.
At the other end of the scale, 21 horses had an AR of 1.50 or below.  After discounting 3 which were bought down, this leaves 18.  The remaining 5 places were filled with horses from this group of 18.  Sunninghill Boy, who came second in a photo finish, had an AR of just 0.50.
So, in terms of sorting the wheat from the chaff, the AR system worked very well.

This year's AR table

This is available in my next post - check it out!

Euro 2012

Euro 2012 bets

To trade:
Top scorer: Fernando Llorente [19.0 aka 18/1]

Top scorer: Karim Benzema [14.0 aka 13/1]


To keep:

England's Top scorer: Ashley Young [8.0 aka 7/1]

England stage of elimination: Quarter Finals [3.0 aka 2/1]

Group qualification 4-fold: Russia, Germany, Spain, France [3.02 aka 2/1]

Grand National 2012: Tips

Based on my previous post on Grand National Key Stats, I have produced an "Avoidance Rating" (AR) for each horse.  The more key stats/trends it failed to hit, the higher its AR.  Obviously, a lower AR is better.

AR Table

My Tips:

Based on a combination of my AR table, horse write-ups and current odds, my selections are below:

• Giles Cross e/w [19.0 aka 18/1]
• According To Pete e/w [34.0 aka 33/1]
• Rare Bob e/w [51.0 aka 50/1]
• Planet Of Sound e/w [41.0 aka 40/1]

Grand National 2012: Key Stats

Hi, I've been doing plenty of research into the key stats of past Grand Nationals and have come up with the following key stats for consideration...

TOO HEAVY: 59/64 previous winners carried < 11st 6lbs in weight.

Avoid:

BALLABRIGGS (IRE) 
NEPTUNE COLLONGES (FR) 
CALGARY BAY (IRE) 
SYNCHRONISED (IRE) 
WEIRD AL (IRE) 

TOO YOUNG/OLD: 11/13 previous winners aged 9, 10 or 11, plus in past 2 yrs, none of the top 8 finishers were < 9 y.o.

Avoid:

SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM (IRE) 
ORGANISEDCONFUSION (IRE) 
ON HIS OWN (IRE) 
ALFA BEAT (IRE) 
BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 
MON MOME (FR) 
THARAWAAT (IRE) 
STATE OF PLAY
VIC VENTURI (IRE) 
HELLO BUD (IRE) 
SMOKING ACES (IRE) 
TATENEN (FR) 
QUISCOVER FONTAINE (FR) 
VIKING BLOND (FR) 
OUR ISLAND (IRE) 
IN COMPLIANCE (IRE) 

NO BIG RACE WINS: 10/10 previous winners have won a race worth >= £17k.

Avoid:

MIDNIGHT HAZE
NEPTUNE EQUESTER
ANY CURRENCY (IRE) 
ABBEYBRANEY (IRE) 
BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE (IRE) 
SWING BILL (FR) 
POSTMASTER
VIKING BLOND (FR) 
OUR ISLAND (IRE) 

LITTLE JUMP EXPERIENCE: 10/10 previous winners have run at >= 10 times over jumps.

Avoid:

CAPPA BLEU (IRE) 
ON HIS OWN (IRE)

NO PROVEN STAMINA: The National is 4m 4f long.  If a horse hasn't already won over 3m+, it's a big ask.

Avoid:

SEABASS (IRE) 
TATENEN (FR) 
QUISCOVER FONTAINE (FR) 
BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE (IRE) 
IN COMPLIANCE (IRE) 

ODDS: 20/21 previous winners have been shorter than 40/1.

Avoid:

PLANET OF SOUND
DEEP PURPLE
RARE BOB (IRE) 
ARBOR SUPREME (IRE) 
ALFA BEAT (IRE) 
BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 
THE MIDNIGHT CLUB (IRE) 
MON MOME (FR) 
THARAWAAT (IRE) 
STATE OF PLAY
MIDNIGHT HAZE
VIC VENTURI (IRE) 
HELLO BUD (IRE) 
NEPTUNE EQUESTER
ANY CURRENCY (IRE) 
ABBEYBRANEY (IRE) 
SMOKING ACES (IRE) 
WEIRD AL (IRE) 
TATENEN (FR) 
QUISCOVER FONTAINE (FR) 
SWING BILL (FR) 
POSTMASTER
VIKING BLOND (FR) 
OUR ISLAND (IRE) 
IN COMPLIANCE (IRE) 

ODDS: 17/21 previous winners have been shorter than 20/1.

Avoid:

ACCORDING TO PETE
ALWAYS RIGHT (IRE) 
TREACLE (IRE) 
NEPTUNE COLLONGES (FR) 
CALGARY BAY (IRE) 
PLANET OF SOUND
DEEP PURPLE
SEABASS (IRE) 
RARE BOB (IRE) 
ARBOR SUPREME (IRE) 
ALFA BEAT (IRE) 
BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 
THE MIDNIGHT CLUB (IRE) 
MON MOME (FR) 
THARAWAAT (IRE) 
STATE OF PLAY
MIDNIGHT HAZE
VIC VENTURI (IRE) 
HELLO BUD (IRE) 
NEPTUNE EQUESTER
ANY CURRENCY (IRE) 
ABBEYBRANEY (IRE) 
SMOKING ACES (IRE) 
WEIRD AL (IRE) 
TATENEN (FR) 
QUISCOVER FONTAINE (FR) 
BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE (IRE) 
SWING BILL (FR) 
POSTMASTER
VIKING BLOND (FR) 
OUR ISLAND (IRE) 
IN COMPLIANCE (IRE)

LITTLE REST: Worth consiering if a horse has run within the last 30 days.

Avoid:

SUNNYHILLBOY (IRE) 
KILLYGLEN (IRE) 
SYNCHRONISED (IRE) 
THE MIDNIGHT CLUB (IRE) 
WEIRD AL (IRE) 
BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE (IRE) 
SWING BILL (FR) 
POSTMASTER
IN COMPLIANCE (IRE) 

US Masters 2012: Tips

My tips for the 2012 US Masters are below.  Golf-wise, I only ever bet the Masters and the Open, and I have made and average of 60% ROI over the past 3 years betting these tourneys.  Be warned, I am not a golf expert, but I spend a long time researching stats and player histories, and finding valuebets.

Wk 27 Tips

TUESDAY 31st JANUARY 2012

PROFIT:  +7.14 pts

WEDNESDAY 1st FEBRUARY 2012

SATURDAY 4th FEBRUARY 2012