BGT: Semi Finals
When it comes to the live semi-finals of BGT, there is a massive, undeniable and fairly obvious trend:
Bet on acts performing 6th, 7th or 8th.
It sounds simple, and it can be backed up with stats:
For the past 3 years of BGT (series 2-4), there have been 5 live semi-finals each year. In series 1 there were 3 live semi-finals. In all cases (18 semis in total), there have been 8 acts performing.
- In 15/19 SFs, the act performing 8th (last) has won the semi final outright. That's 78.9% of the time.
- In 18/19 SFs, the winning act has been in the last 3 to perform (6th, 7th or 8th). That's 94.7% of the time. The only exception was Paul Burling (the Impressionist) in 2010, who only won by 3% of the vote (a record low margin for an act outside the last 3 to perform). You've guessed it; he beat an act that performed 7th out of 8.
- NEVER has an act performing in the first 3 slots won a SF.
Again, last night's first SF was won by Ronan Parke (performing 8th and last).
Why does such a pattern exist? Because the order of the acts is not random.
Typically the producers (who decide these things in advance) like to follow a formula which guarantees the greatest feel-good viewing experience for the public.
Usually they will start with a fun high-tempo act such as a dance troupe or singing group with an upbeat track (rarely a solo performer). They tend to end with 2 very strong acts that are considered to be favourites with the public and can close the show with the wow-factor which will get late-comers voting even if they've seen only the last act or two. These acts tend to be something really special or highly dramatic/emotional, such as Paul Potts singing Nessun Dorma, Susan Boyle, or in the case of last night, Ronan Parke singing "Feel My Love" by Adele. The producers also want the strongest possible line-up for the final - and putting the best acts on last maximises the chance of them getting through.
Even if the line-up for the next SF is available, the order is not normally decided until late-on, and kept secret to maintain interest. There is opportunity to predict the line-up based on assumptions like I have made above and bet accordingly. Once the performing order is revealed, odds will shift and trading opportunities arise.
Think before you bet though. Whilst the pattern indicates the producers almost always end with quality acts, they could easily decide to finish with a feel-good (but less talented) 'Jedward' type act so beware.
Keep an eye out for these trends on the coming 4 SFs this week.
I'll be back later in the week with strategy for the BGT final.
