Tips tweeted from @MightyTractor
Nadal beats Del Potro @ 1.24 (5 pts)
Bartoli beats Lisicki @ 2.06 (2 pts)
Sharapova beats Cibulkova @ 1.29 (5 pts)
Djokovic beats Nadal @ 2.42 (5 pts)
Monday, 27 June 2011
Tuesday, 7 June 2011
Wk 45 various tips
Bets tweeted from @MightyTractor
TUE - 19:30 - San Marino v Hungary > 2.5 goals @ 1.37 (5 pts)
TUE - 19:30 - San Marino v Hungary > 2.5 goals @ 1.37 (5 pts)
Saturday, 4 June 2011
Britain's Got Talent Betting Strategy (Part II)
BGT: The Final
There are many interesting stats for the BGT final. All stats are in reference to the previous 4 finals of BGT (6 acts in series 1, 10 acts in series 2-4), in which a total of 36 acts performed. For ease of calculations, I will calculate the 6-act final of 2007 as if there had been 10 acts performing.
In the 4th live SF of series 4 (2010), Janey and T&P polled over 80% of the vote between them. This was unusually high, as the two most popular acts in SFs normally get <75% when added together. Janey won the vote by a mere 5%, despite performing last in the coveted 8th slot. T&P were hampered by performing 4th, and to this day polled the highest % vote for an act performing in the first-half of a SF (even more than Paul Burling who won from the 4th slot, and more than Diversity the year before). The combination of performing last and having the "loveable old granny" factor won Janey a lot of votes she would not otherwise have got, as was emphasised in the final when she performed 9/10 but only polled 3.6% of the vote.
It is my theory that these factors gave Janey a temporary likeability factor in which the British public voted her through the SF as it made a nice story, but when it got to the business-end of the competition, they acknowledged she wasn't in the same class. It's the same reason Anne Widdecombe and John Sargeant did so well on Strictly Come Dancing; they are entertaining, it makes a nice story, and it's funny to vote for them. Ultimately the public will do the right thing when it matters and wouldn't let an act so clearly out of their depth win the competition.
SF qualifiers from the current series:
Once again, nobody from the first-half of any show ended up winning. Indeed, only 1/10 acts who qualified for the final performed in the first-half of their SF.
SF1 - WINNER: Ronan Parke (slot 8/8), RU: Paul Gbegbaje (slot 4/8).
SF2 - WINNER: New Bounce (slot 5/8), RU: Jean Martyn (slot 6/8).
SF3 - WINNER: Les Gibson (slot 6/8), RU: James Hobley (slot 7/8).
SF4 - WINNER: Jai McDowall (slot 6/8), RU: Steven Hall (slot 7/8).
SF5 - WINNER: Razy Gogonea (slot 8/8), RU: Michael Collings (slot 7/8).
Predictions:
It was a shock that Les Gibson beat James Hobley in SF3. Having already seen Les beat him once, I can't see how James can improve on his act enough to beat Les in the final. I'm trying to to be a philistine here, but what can he do with his dance routine that he hasn't already done? Ronan Parke was so far ahead of Paul Gbegbaje and will surely be given a prime slot in the final in which to shine. We have to consider who will be chosen to fill the last 4 slots in the final, since nobody has ever won from outside these slots. Ronan Parke is surely a shoe-in to close the show, or at least take one of these slots, whilst Paul and Jean will surely feature early. I wasn't hugely impressed with New Bounce, but everyone else seems to think they are amazing so they are a potential threat given the right draw.
Much will depend on the order, but in terms of pure quality, surely it much be between Ronan and Razy. Jai stands a good chance too if he is positioned late-on and sings the right song. If the final runs true to form, the final 4 slots will probably be filled by Ronan, Razy, Jai and one of New Bounce/James/Michael.
Les is the unknown in all this as there have been so few impressionists get to this stage before. I don't think he's as good as Paul Burling from the previous series, but a good routine can see him challenge if positioned late. Pre-show, my money's on Ronan.
There are many interesting stats for the BGT final. All stats are in reference to the previous 4 finals of BGT (6 acts in series 1, 10 acts in series 2-4), in which a total of 36 acts performed. For ease of calculations, I will calculate the 6-act final of 2007 as if there had been 10 acts performing.
Interesting stats:
- Only twice from 18 previous semi-finals has an act that finished runner-up in the semi gone on to finish higher in the final that the act they lost out to in the semi. These acts were Diversity (beating Susan Boyle to win the final in series 3), and Twist & Pulse (beating Janey Cutler to finish runner-up in series 4). That's only 11.1% of the time. Don't bet on acts that didn't win their SF. In Part I of my BGT strategy, I emphasised the importance of performing towards the end of the show. In both these cases, the SF runners-up who did better in the final were hampered in their respective SFs by a bad/early draw and lost out to an act that performed last, thus skewing the voting away from them.
- EVERY winner of BGT was one of the last 4 acts to perform in the final. Paul Potts performed 6/6, George Sampson 7/10, Diversity 9/10 and Spelbound 10/10.
- Semi-final winners finised in the top 5 (or top-half) in the final on 15/18 occasions. That's 83.3% of the time.
- Only 3 SF runners-up have ever achieved a top-half position in the final. Two were Diversity and Twist & Pulse (mentionned earlier) and the other was Damon Scott, a singer in series 1 who finished 3/6.
- Semi-final winners drawn favourably (in the second half of the final) have finished in the top 5 in the final on 12/13 occasions. That's only 92.3% of the time. The only exception was Janey Cutler last year. Indeed, in series 2 (George Sampson - 2008), the 5 SF winners performed in the last 5 slots and promptly finished in positions 1-5.
In the 4th live SF of series 4 (2010), Janey and T&P polled over 80% of the vote between them. This was unusually high, as the two most popular acts in SFs normally get <75% when added together. Janey won the vote by a mere 5%, despite performing last in the coveted 8th slot. T&P were hampered by performing 4th, and to this day polled the highest % vote for an act performing in the first-half of a SF (even more than Paul Burling who won from the 4th slot, and more than Diversity the year before). The combination of performing last and having the "loveable old granny" factor won Janey a lot of votes she would not otherwise have got, as was emphasised in the final when she performed 9/10 but only polled 3.6% of the vote.
It is my theory that these factors gave Janey a temporary likeability factor in which the British public voted her through the SF as it made a nice story, but when it got to the business-end of the competition, they acknowledged she wasn't in the same class. It's the same reason Anne Widdecombe and John Sargeant did so well on Strictly Come Dancing; they are entertaining, it makes a nice story, and it's funny to vote for them. Ultimately the public will do the right thing when it matters and wouldn't let an act so clearly out of their depth win the competition.
SF qualifiers from the current series:
Once again, nobody from the first-half of any show ended up winning. Indeed, only 1/10 acts who qualified for the final performed in the first-half of their SF.
SF1 - WINNER: Ronan Parke (slot 8/8), RU: Paul Gbegbaje (slot 4/8).
SF2 - WINNER: New Bounce (slot 5/8), RU: Jean Martyn (slot 6/8).
SF3 - WINNER: Les Gibson (slot 6/8), RU: James Hobley (slot 7/8).
SF4 - WINNER: Jai McDowall (slot 6/8), RU: Steven Hall (slot 7/8).
SF5 - WINNER: Razy Gogonea (slot 8/8), RU: Michael Collings (slot 7/8).
Predictions:
It was a shock that Les Gibson beat James Hobley in SF3. Having already seen Les beat him once, I can't see how James can improve on his act enough to beat Les in the final. I'm trying to to be a philistine here, but what can he do with his dance routine that he hasn't already done? Ronan Parke was so far ahead of Paul Gbegbaje and will surely be given a prime slot in the final in which to shine. We have to consider who will be chosen to fill the last 4 slots in the final, since nobody has ever won from outside these slots. Ronan Parke is surely a shoe-in to close the show, or at least take one of these slots, whilst Paul and Jean will surely feature early. I wasn't hugely impressed with New Bounce, but everyone else seems to think they are amazing so they are a potential threat given the right draw.
Much will depend on the order, but in terms of pure quality, surely it much be between Ronan and Razy. Jai stands a good chance too if he is positioned late-on and sings the right song. If the final runs true to form, the final 4 slots will probably be filled by Ronan, Razy, Jai and one of New Bounce/James/Michael.
Les is the unknown in all this as there have been so few impressionists get to this stage before. I don't think he's as good as Paul Burling from the previous series, but a good routine can see him challenge if positioned late. Pre-show, my money's on Ronan.
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