BETTING: Wk 32 - Weekend tips 11-13 Mar 2011

ENGLAND
Leyton Orient beat Oldham @ 1.89 (2 pts)
Orient lost 2 of their first 3 home games of the season, but since then they have won 8 and drawn 4, scoring an average of 2 goals per game at Brisbane Road. They've won 5 of their last 6 and are unbeaten in 12.
Oldham are in a poor run of form, with no win in 8, no away win in 6 and only 2 goals in their last 7 games, 5 of which they lost.

Dagenham win at Swindon @ 3.80 (2 pts)
Swindon haven't won a game since Charlie Austin left for Burnley during the window. That's now 13 games, during which they've only picked up 4 points. Goals have dried up too, scoring only 6 times. They have lost 5 of their last 6, scoring only twice.
Despite also being in the relgation zone, Dagenham have won their last 2 games and have a very positive record against other League 1 strugglers. Swindon could also be layed here.

FRANCE
Sochaux v Lyon >2.5goals @ 2.20 (2 pts)
Average goals in a Sochaux home game: 2.76, average goals in a Lyon away game: 3.08.
Aside from Lyon, Sochaux have played the rest of the teams challenging for the title at home this year already. In 3 games from 4, there were 3+ goals.
When playing non-title-chasers away from home, Lyon have been involves in 3+ games on 6 occasions from 9.

ITALY
Inter win/win at Brescia @ 2.92 (2 pts)
Inter draw/win at Brescia @ 4.70 (2 pts)
Brescia are very much at the wrong end of the table, and the only wins they have mustered in their last 23 have come against fellow strugglers Bari, Parma and Sampdoria.
Inter are on a superb run, taking 33 points from their last 39. Even under Rafa Benitez they were never beaten by a team as lowly as Brescia. In their last 4 wins away from home, Inter have been drawing at HT. Alternative bet is to simply back Inter at about 1.70.

SPAIN
Real Madrid win/win v Hercules @ 1.53 (2 pts)
Real Madrid clean sheet v Hercules @ 1.78 (2 pts)
Real have conceded only 6 goals at home this season. As I have blogged previously, Hercules have scored only 3 away all season, and not at all since October (now 9 games), picking up just a single point.
Assuming, given the above, that Real will win (they've won 13/13 at home this season), there is very little value at 1.17. Far better value is the win/win, given that Hercules have been behind at half-time in each of their last 6 away games.

Zaragoza +1.5 v Valencia @ 1.25 (2 pts)
Zaragoza haven't lost a home game by more than 1 goal aside from the visits of elite sides Barcelona, Real Madrid and Villarreal (and the first game of the season against Malaga). Perhaps this makes this bet a little risky being as Valencia are also one the the 'elite', but Zaragoza have had some reasonable results recently and even Barca and Atletico struggled to beat them, while Bilbao lost.
Valencia haven't won an away game by more than a single goal all season and will hopefully be depressed and jaded following their Champions League exit midweek in Schalke.

Other bets tweeted:
Braga v Liverpool <3.5goals @ 1.23 (2 pts)
Kiev v Man City <2.5goals @ 1.70 (2 pts)