BETTING: Wk 30 - Weekend tips 25/27 Feb 2011

ENGLAND
Lay Middlesbrough v QPR @ 2.82 (2 pts)
QPR's win against a resurgent Ipswich in midweek put them in an extremely strong position  at the top of the Championship and they are now unbeaten in 9.  They've only lost 2 away games this season (against Norwich and Leeds - both very good sides), and 'boro aren't in that bracket for quality.
Despite an impressive win at Milwall in midweek, all but 2 of Middlesbrough's 10 wins this season have come against sides who won't be in the mix come the end-of-season promotion/playoff picture.  This leads me to the conclusion that they won't beat QPR who are by far and away the best side in the division.


Lay Walsall v Rochdale @ 2.60 (2 pts)
Walsall have given themselves a fighting chance of avoiding relegation with 3 wins in their last 6 (although all against bottom-half sides and 2 came against the bottom 2 teams in the division).  Of their 8 wins this season, only 1 came against top-half opposition.
Rochdale are unbeaten in 2011 (10 games), don't tend to concede many goals and shouldn't lose here.

Aldershot v Port Vale draw @ 3.45 (2 pts)
Aldershot are in a run of 5 consecutive draws and Port Vale have slumped since Micky Adams' departure for Sheff Utd, with only 3 wins from 11 scuppering their previously decent promotion chances.  They haven't won away since Adams left so the teams aren't as far apart as the league table suggests.


FRANCE
St Etienne clean sheet v Nice @ 2.28 (2 pts)
The fact that St Etienne have lost their last 2 games, conceding 6 goals in total is skewed by the opposition (Lyon & Marseille).  The big facts of interest here concern Nice's inability to score goals:

• Only 4 away goals all season (12 games).
• No away goals in their last 4.
• Only 2 goals in their last 8 (home & away).
• Have failed to score in 13/24 games this season (home & away).

ITALY
Catania v Genoa <2.5goals @ 1.64 (2 pts)
As I've blogged previously, Genoa's away record reads like binary.  Here are some facts:

• Their last 5 away games have all had 1 goal or less, 3 ending 0-0.
• Over the entire season away (13 games), only 2 have contained more than 2 goals.
• 4 of their last 7 have ended goalless.

9 of Catania's 13 home games have had 2 goals or less.

Other tweeted/facebooked bets:
Arsenal v Birmingham >2.5 goals @ 1.94 (2 pts)
Arsenal v Birmingham - both sides score @ 2.20 (2 pts)