BETTING: Week 29 - Tips for Weekend 19th & 20th Feb 2011

ENGLAND
Lay Sheff Utd at Crystal Palace @ 3.60 (2 pts)
Despite struggling in the league, Palace have an excellent home record of late.  They haven't lost at Selhurst sine Swansea won there at the end of October, and haven't conceded a single goal in their last 7 home games, during which there have been three 1-0 wins, three 0-0 draws and a 2-0 win.
United's form is pretty abysmal and they have only scored 1 goal from open play in their last 6 games.  They haven't won in 6 away.

FRANCE
Lorient beat Bordeaux - draw no bet @ 1.82 (3 pts)
Whilst Lorient sit below Bordeaux in the table, and are a pretty average side, there's still a great deal of value in the home win here.  They haven't conceded in 4 home games, are unbeaten in 8 at home and have turned over top-5 sides Lyon and Rennes, whilst PSG could only draw there.  Lorient's home record is among the best in the league.  Bordeaux have drawn 6 of their last 9 games and their only win in that time came at home to Nice.  The same Nice that have scored only 4 away goals all season.  I considered laying Bordeaux at approx 3.30 and it was a close call between the two.

GERMANY
Schalke win at Borossia MG - draw no bet @ 1.60 (2 pts)
BMG have only picked up 3 points from 33 at home this season, and are winless so far.  They have somehow managed to ship 28 goals in those 11 matches.  BMG's top scorer is also suspended for this game.
Schalke are coming off the back of a great 1-1 away at Valencia in the Champions League midweek.  Although they haven't scored more than 1 goal in a match since before Christmas they have only conceded 2 in their last 8 league games.  Schalke's last 3 away matches have resulted in impressive 1-0 wins at Hannover (4th), Mainz (5th) and Dortmund (runaway leaders).

HOLLAND
Groningen beat Roda @ 1.74 (3 pts)
Groningen have won 10/12 home games this season, and have beaten every visiting non-elite side.
Roda were on fire away from home in the opening months of the season, so their away record looks a bit better than it actually is at the moment.  Their only away win since late October came against the ever-atrocious VVV Venlo.  They have lost the last 3 away, 2 agsinst teams in the bottom 6 including a stuffing at Vitesse who, even now, are still the joint lowest home scorers in the league.

ADO beat Feyenoord @ 2.06 (2 pts)
ADO have won 5 straight matches, including a win at the mighty PSV (however 2 have been against woeful VVV Venlo and Willem II).
Feyenoord are still yet to win away and are having a shocker of a season for such a huge club.  They've picked up only 4 points away from home, all came with draws against teams in the bottom-half.  When they've travelled to anyone decent, they've always been beaten.

SPAIN
Sevilla v Hercules - either team scores 0 @ 2.22 (2 pts)
Sevilla have failed to score in 2 out of 12 home games this season, which doesn't make great reading considering the proposed bet I know (as an aside, both games were against strugglers like Hercules).
The main reasoning here is that Hercules have scored a pathetic 3 away goals all season and ironically, 2 of those came in their first game of the season away to Barcelona of all teams!  They haven't scored away in the league since late October, a run of 7 games during which they have shipped 15 goals and picked up just 1 point.  Hercules will also be without Nelson Valdez, who has 7 goals this season.

Real Madrid draw/win v Levante @ 5.30 (2 pts)
Real have won all 11 home games in the league this season, 5 of which have been drawing at half-time.
Levante have gone in level at the break in 7 of their last 9, and have gone in 0-0 away at the break against the only 2 other elite sides they've visited this season so far (Barca and Villarreal).
The bare stats say you only need to get >3.25 to be profitable on this bet, so getting 5.20 makes it a good bet.